<p>The problem with your first point is that all of these trends have been in place for a long time. Although the peak US 18-year-old population was 2008 or 2009, it hadn’t been going up much year-to-year for several years, and it isn’t going down much year-to-year now. The projections were for a 3-4% decline over 5-6 years, and then the numbers would start rising again. But the Scarsdale numbers (or equivalent) have been trending flat or down for a while. Maybe not in your district, but overall. And elite college applications have been going up by double digits year after year – way beyond anything population trends would support.</p>
<p>I think there are several reasons for that. After years of outreach, the Ivies etc. have captured the imaginations of vast swaths of American that used not to think about them at all, and the people who used to make up the bulk of Ivy enrollments are spreading to the Ivy-equivalents – research universities whose undergraduate colleges used to be less attractive, but are plenty attractive now. Also, the elite schools are capable of competing on price with flagship publics, with need-based aid for six-figure households and full rides for kids way above the poverty line. If Harvard or Stanford are cheaper than Cal or Penn State – and they are, for a big chunk of the population – they are going to draw a lot of applications.</p>
<p>Those newly-bred US college prospects ARE sending out elite school apps. The kids who went to Harvard from my children’s high school classes were ALL immigrants; none of them were born here.</p>
<p>And of course when 15 applications becomes the norm for ambitious students, the colleges they apply to are going to get a lot more applications than they did when 5 applications was the norm. Maybe that will ease a bit, but it’s hard to see it going away. Right now, it’s a classic Prisoner’s Dilemma – everyone would be better off if they all limited the number of applications they submit, but anyone who does that unilaterally puts himself at a real disadvantage.</p>
<p>I will be really, really surprised if your GCs are right. I am sure some colleges will see a decline in applications. Second- and third-tier LACs, expensive privates without a lot of prestige – they are going to be in trouble. Some third-tier publics in the Northeast and Midwest are going to be shuttered. And I certainly don’t think Harvard’s applications are going to go up 5-10% year after year. But go down meaningfully? I doubt it.</p>