@TiggerDad - if that were true, every unhooked Asian-American kid (and white kid) admitted to the elites would have perfect stats and “great spiky ECs”, and I can assure you that many of them don’t. It’s all about what the adcoms think you’ll contribute at the school and after, as they allocate a finite number of spots among many constituencies.
There are several implicit assumptions in your argument: (i) that it’s possible for adcoms to assign an individual ranking to each applicant by stats and EC spikiness; (ii) that hooked kids would never rank highly by these measures; (iii) that adcoms assign this ranking and use it as a yardstick for admission (in fact, the principal yardstick for the unhooked); (iv) that the applicants at the top by those measures have earned and are owed admission; and (v) that they’re overwhelmingly Asian-American. I don’t believe any of those assumptions is accurate.
What I’m confident is true is that adcoms fill the class by bucket (with which you appear to agree), with probably a little under half the slots going to the unhooked. Most applicants - including most Asian-American applicants - are unhooked. There are far more unhooked kids with stellar stats and spiky ECs than can be admitted. Many - but not nearly all - of these are Asian-American. So, a lot of Asian-Americans (and other kids) with stellar stats and spiky ECs aren’t admitted, and the ones who are admitted get the nod because they’re deemed to be just a little bit better than the ones who don’t, based on their essays, LORs, etc. (which the armchair pundits on CC of course never see, and which many assume - wrongly - don’t count for much).
If there are two applicants with identical super stats and ECs, there’s room for one of them, and the adcoms conclude that one has the personal attributes to found a major company while the other will probably only ever be a strong bench scientist, they’re probably going to pick the first one, whether one, both or neither is Asian-American. It isn’t a racist conspiracy, just about picking the top candidates in each category to fill a limited number of places.
This, by the way, is why I think the lawsuit against Harvard alleging discrimination against Asian-American applicants to the College is going to go nowhere. There won’t be a smoking gun of a memo that says “we’ve hit our Asian limit”, because I’m confident they don’t explicitly screen applicants by race. Instead, they’ll find, among other things, files of admitted Asian-Americans with less-than-perfect stats but with adcom notes that talk about how fabulous the kid is, and files of white kids with better stats who were denied.
Ironically, if the schools were willing to state unapologetically that this how they make the sausage, no one would bother bringing a case. Because the schools won’t acknowledge clearly that stats are more of a filter than a yardstick, and that a lot of other things can be more important once you pass the filter, they end up in court accused of racial discrimination in violating admissions standards that they don’t even use.