Harvard's Masters of the Apocalypse (Times of London)

<p>"Uh, no, there is no such thing as inherent aggregate demand that is separate from the concept of price, as there is nothing "inherent" about it. Aggregate demand is also determined by price. If potato chips cost less, then not only will I demand more of them, but more importantly, some people who had previously demanded none (at the higher price) will now demand some. Hence, the aggregate summation of all of our demands increase. On the other hand, if potato chips cost a million dollars, then nobody will want any, and the aggregate summation of all of our (zero) demand values is still zero. There is nothing "inherent" about the demand. I'm sure you're aware of that basic principle. "</p>

<p>Actually what you are talking about is the change in the quantity demanded (which strictly moves along the aggregate demand curve and is solely a function of price). The aggregate demand curve is not determined by price but rather the inherent demand for a product in society at any given moment. Any economics textbook will tell you this and is frequently misinterpreted. Let's use the potato chips example. A change in price affects quantity demanded as you say in your post. But let's say everyone suddenly becomes health-conscious thus reducing the aggregate demand for potato chips. Price plays no role in this situation because an external factor has changed the inherent aggregate demand for potato chips. Quantity demanded is wholly different from aggregate demand becuase they are functions of two completely different variables.</p>

<p>Anyways back to the subject at hand.</p>

<p>I think another way to look at business is not about creating money but about creating VALUE. That's the basis of economic growth in a society. It's reported in dollars and cents but this is what a business/economy does.</p>

<p>I agree with sakky that the current incentive structure in ibanking(moreso trading) creates a situation where people are solely focused on making money rather than value to society. Most other industries do not follow this incentive model. Oil may make enormous profits but they truly do create enormous value for society. Google and Microsoft may make enormous profits but they truly do create enormous value for society. The profits come as a result of the value they create, NOT from selfish greed of executives that charge customers through the nose.</p>

<p>You should be focused on what you can do as a leader to create value to society and the money will come. Often times, it doesn't work the other way around.</p>

<p>Another way to do so is to emulate a company like Craigslist, which makes a relative pittance in profit (but could make billions on billions if the founder chooses to charge for it) but creates enormous value to society. It's an entirely viable business that makes a non-trivial sum in salary for the founder but a conscious choice was made to create a product that creates value if not money. You can aim to follow this model if you are philosophically against the idea of making money.</p>

<p>"Untrue. Businesses around the globe have dedicated departments running at full speed dreaming up unnecessary products / services to push on an unsuspecting consumer market hoping to "generate" demand.</p>

<p>For instance, was there a burning need for iPhone "apps" before the iPhone even existed, or was that "need" / generated by a black turtleneck sporting genius in Cupertino, CA?</p>

<p>Want some more? Just turn on your cable at 3 in the morning and marvel at the myriad of useless products being peddled via infomercials. No one needs a toaster specifically to toast hot dog buns. Unless, of course, you have enough money to eat that hot dog with a million dollar potato chip. "</p>

<p>You're looking at it in the wrong way. Business around the globe have dedicated departments running at full speed dreaming up products to make money on LATENT demand.</p>

<p>30 years ago there was little demand for computers. It doesn't mean for one second that the demand for some sort of computational device that would make number crunching enormously faster was GENERATED by some business. A business recognized that there was something missing in people's lives that people wanted but couldn't necessarily articulate and boom, a computer was created, and everyone realized it would make their lives easier.</p>

<p>And just because you don't want a toaster specifically for hot dog buns doesn't mean there isn't someone out there that does.</p>

<p>
[quote]
You're looking at it in the wrong way. Business around the globe have dedicated departments running at full speed dreaming up products to make money on LATENT demand.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>With all due respect, you are looking at it the wrong way.</p>

<p>Let's get beyond semantics about demand and "latent demand". PT Barnum said that there is a sucker born every minute - just because you find a buyer for something that you are selling doesn't necessarily mean that you have identified a unique marketplace -- sometimes you have just identified a sucker. </p>

<p>Let's get back to the crux of I am arguing (along with Sakky and others) --> that businesses exist / are driven primarily by the profit motive.</p>

<p>Others are arguing that businesses exist to meet some kind of inherent demand.</p>

<p>Well, let's take the extreme examples to illustrate why it is unquestionably the profit motive. Ask yourselves this simple question, "who are the most neediest people on earth?" Take a look at Africa for a moment. Are there more needier people than multiple places on this continent? Look at Rwanda. </p>

<p>There are nearly limitless NEEDS there. Healthcare and medicine. Food. Clothing. Education. You name it. </p>

<p>So if businesses exist solely to meet "needs", how come Global Multi-National Corporations aren't falling over themselves trying to meet the desperate needs in Africa? How come a rock superstar like Bono has to meet with heads of states just to get them to look at this place? How come pharmaceutical companies aren't selling their products (at a discount) to cure many common ills and save countless lives? How come Mickey D's and Starbucks aren't all over the place? How come Wal-Mart isn't taking over the continent? Why isn't Harvard there?</p>

<p>Why? BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MONEY TO BE MADE THERE. PERIOD. </p>

<p>Needs. Please. Wake up and smell the money.</p>

<p>With all due respect to you, sakky, and others… You have successfully missed the entire point. Perhaps I did not explain what I mean coherently - but nonetheless, it is not really worth trying to explain myself again. rs288 is saying fundamentally the same thing. Neither one of us are telling you to go set up camp in Africa… I don’t even know where you were trying to go with that - but it is completely irrelevant to what I am talking about. </p>

<p>Chase your profit… I will make a profit chasing other things.</p>

<p>
[quote]
I don’t even know where you were trying to go with that - but it is completely irrelevant to what I am talking about.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>The point is as plain as the nose on your face. Let me put it bluntly:</p>

<p>the fact there is very little relative economic activity / investment by MNCs in Africa is because they have very little MONEY (the consumers). Those MNCs are better off investing a dollar elsewhere where their return on capital is much, much higher (not to mention with much lower risk).</p>

<p>If all of the sudden Africa stumbled upon some massive oil reserves and started increasing wealth and had more MONEY to spend, you bet that the businesses would come calling.</p>

<p>The point is these notions of "adding value" and "needs" are not the underlying motives that drives businesses. Now I'm not saying that as a by-product of said business activities that a certain measure of "value" or "needs" are not being creating or met -- most certainly there is a measure of that. Of course it makes perfect sense that a company's strategy to make profits coincides with a "need". But don't confuse the two. Businesses don't exist solely to fulfill some "need". </p>

<p>Businesses are in business to make money. That is why shareholders invest in a company. That is what the shareholders expect its board of directors to focus on and achieve. That is the obligation board of directors when they make decisions and select a CEO. That is the obligation of the CEO.</p>

<p>When shareholders feel that the board, the CEO are not making the right decisions and maximizing profit, they vote with their feet and the stock goes down. Simple.</p>

<p>It is a simple concept and it is you who has successfully missed the entire point.</p>

<p>Given - nobody “needs” an iPhone - what they “need” fundamentally is a good way of communicating and retrieving information. I will agree with sakky on the fact that humans only NEED(literally) precious few things to survive, food, shelter, air, etc. When I say businesses exist to serve a need, perhaps you are interpreting that too literally. Rs288 said it better, they exist to provide value. However, I still contend that if something provides value, it also serves a need - but perhaps that is semantics. </p>

<p>Your entire African example shows that you have missed the point on a fundamental level. I stated numerous times in this thread that a business cannot exist if it doesn’t make money - hence, business in Africa doesn’t make sense. </p>

<p>Perhaps you should try to start a business that exists ONLY to make money. 1.) What is your market? 2.) How do you plan to accomplish that goal? 3.) Why do you want to make money?</p>

<p>ANSWERS
1.) Your market MUST be people who “need”(not literally) whatever service or product you plan to sell.
2.) You MUST have some product or service that serves a need (not literally).
3.) To serve your need(literally or not literally) for income to buy food, shelter, iPhones…etc.</p>

<p>The better value that you can provide for #’s 1 and 2 will determine your profit. You cannot simply go out and say - I am going to start a business to make money… You MUST provide for some need(not literally) in society, the better value that you can provide doing this will determine how successful the business is. GIVEN: you can produce that value at a lower cost than you can sell it for.</p>

<p>Making a product to serve a need is not a byproduct of making money... Making money is a byproduct of serving a need.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Your entire African example shows that you have missed the point on a fundamental level. I stated numerous times in this thread that a business cannot exist if it doesn’t make money - hence, business in Africa doesn’t make sense.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>No. You have missed the entire point - again.</p>

<p>Are you saying that there are absolutely NO businesses at all in Africa? Of course there are. But on a RELATIVE basis, there is less economic activity there vs. other regions.</p>

<p>So your attempt to simply discount Africa as an example because "you can't make money there" is invalid. Re-read my last post. Businesses are not there because they won't make ENOUGH money. Not because they can't make ANY money.</p>

<p>You CAN make money there. The real point is you just won't be making ENOUGH of it. Or, put another way, you can make MORE elsewhere with the same amount of invested capital, hence, there are relatively fewer economic investments in Africa.</p>

<p>This is the point. Which again, comes back to the PROFIT MOTIVE.</p>

<p>
[quote]
1.) What is your market? 2.) How do you plan to accomplish that goal? 3.) Why do you want to make money?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Let's answer those three questions:</p>

<ul>
<li>There is every reason to believe there are people with similar "needs" in Africa</li>
<li>There are products or services which meet said "needs" in Africa</li>
<li>Who cares why? The point is that you can make more of it outside of Africa</li>
</ul>

<p>
[quote]
The better value that you can provide for #’s 1 and 2 will determine your profit. You MUST provide for some need(not literally) in society, the better value that you can provide doing this will determine how successful the business is.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>No. As I said, there isn't a better market in the world where "needs" are more urgent and widespread than in Africa - so that covers point no. 1 rather thoroughly. Next, are there products which exist which could cover said "needs" in Africa? Absolutely, positively there are -- where else could you provide more "value" than actually saving lives? -- this slam dunks point no. 2.</p>

<p>Would it be possible to make a profit addressing these two things in Africa? Yes its POSSIBLE. But you won't make ENOUGH. You can MAKE MORE elsewhere.</p>

<p>That is why businesses are not falling over themselves trying to get into the African market. Is this a social / moral injustice? Absolutely. But this is business, not a charity. Many people may ask "well why don't they help / invest in Africa? They should." Well why don't you? Why not liquidate your life savings and save some village in Africa? Because its YOUR money. Not to mention potentially irresponsible especially if you have obligations to your family to provide for them. Similarly, a business has obligations -- to its own workers, capital providers (shareholders, bondholders, etc.). When you invest YOUR money in a business, you expect that business to follow the profit motive not the charity motive. When you want to invest in a charity, you can pick your own charity to give to -- when you invest in a business, you want it to focus on making the highest returns possible. </p>

<p>Now, that is not to say that many businesses don't engage in charitable activities as a quasi "dividend" which is yielded from their business activities -- absolutely many do. But, again, and here is the main point: that is not WHY they are in business. They are in business to make money.</p>

<p>purduefrank,</p>

<p>with all due respect, this is why the "Africa example" perfectly illustrates why it is the profit motive rather than any other pursuit (be it "value" or "need" or anything else) that drives businesses.</p>

<p>you claim that making money is a by product of serving a need. well, as I've stated, there isn't a region in the world where there are more people in dire "need" than in Africa. so if businesses were truly "need" driven, by logic, every single major multi-national corporation would be doing business there.</p>

<p>the reality is, on a relative global basis, there is scant economic activity there. why? simple. the profit potential is too small -- or put another way, the profit potential is higher elsewhere. it's really as simple as that. mind you, in the meantime, those dire "needs" keep going unmet every single passing day in Africa, while businesses are making money hand over fist elsewhere around the globe.</p>

<p>now some say that Africa represents the great shame of the civilized world. i won't disagree with that. it is shameful. but that has nothing to do with business. a business exists to make money. The African example confirms this.</p>

<p>I stand corrected. A business exists to make money.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Actually what you are talking about is the change in the quantity demanded (which strictly moves along the aggregate demand curve and is solely a function of price). The aggregate demand curve is not determined by price but rather the inherent demand for a product in society at any given moment. Any economics textbook will tell you this and is frequently misinterpreted. Let's use the potato chips example. A change in price affects quantity demanded as you say in your post. But let's say everyone suddenly becomes health-conscious thus reducing the aggregate demand for potato chips. Price plays no role in this situation because an external factor has changed the inherent aggregate demand for potato chips. Quantity demanded is wholly different from aggregate demand becuase they are functions of two completely different variables.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>When I say 'demand', I am not talking about the shape of any overall curve, but simply the amount of a given product that is demanded at a given price. That amount is frequently zero for many potential products and at many prices, such as the million dollar potato chip. If I wanted to talk about the shifts of curves, I would have specifically discussed curves. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Microsoft may make enormous profits but they truly do create enormous value for society. The profits come as a result of the value they create, NOT from selfish greed of executives that charge customers through the nose.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Ha! I, along with many IO economists, would actually argue that Microsoft actually bolsters my*case: that Microsoft prospered *in spite of not actually providing much value to society, and in fact, arguably providing negative value. Let's face it. Microsoft is not most successful computer firm in the world, as measured by market cap, just because they 'create value'. They are successful because they control not one but two monopoly products (the PC operating system and the PC office productivity software suite), both of which are interlinked and hence reinforce the other. </p>

<p>Nor did Microsoft simply stumble upon these products via sheer luck. Rather, Microsoft actively managed its product strategy in order to claim and repeatedly strengthen its monopoly hold. For example, Microsoft signed exclusionary deals with OEM's such that Microsoft would be paid a Windows license fee per PC shipped whether those PC's were loaded with Windows or not. In other words, if a manufacturer such as Dell wanted to ship a PC with IBM OS/2 or any other alternative OS, they still had to pay Microsoft for Windows. Since they would be paying for Windows no matter what, PC manufacturers logically concluded that the optimal course of action was to simply offer only Windows loaded PC's. Microsoft also probably leveraged its Windows monopoly in order to dominate the office productivity space by providing its Word/Excel (later MSOffice) developers access to undocumented API's that developers of rival office productivity software packages, such as the previously dominant WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3, did not have. And, of course, most famously of all, Microsoft attempted to sandbag Netscape through predatory competition via IE Explorer, and in fact succeeded - Netscape's previously 90+% market shape dwindled to the mere single digits and the firm was eventually sold in pieces to AOL and Sun. Yet in the process, Microsoft narrowly escaped divestment from the courts for anticompetitive practices. </p>

<p>Each and every one of these practices has generated tremendous value for Microsoft. However, it is highly questionable as to whether they generated value for society as a whole. The net balance of value that Microsoft has provided to society as a whole is therefore highly unclear. How much choice has been robbed from the consumer because Microsoft has deliberately and repeatedly extended the strength of the monopolies of its markets? How much innovation has been squelched because other firms simply would not dare to develop a product that might compete against Microsoft, and the brave few that did, such as Netscape or SSI (WordPerfect), were mercilessly crushed and hence seen as examples not to be emulated? </p>

<p>
[quote]
Another way to do so is to emulate a company like Craigslist, which makes a relative pittance in profit (but could make billions on billions if the founder chooses to charge for it) but creates enormous value to society. It's an entirely viable business that makes a non-trivial sum in salary for the founder but a conscious choice was made to create a product that creates value if not money. You can aim to follow this model if you are philosophically against the idea of making money.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Interesting that you would say that, for I would again invoke Microsoft as the counterexample. Gates & Allen founded Microsoft with the express intention of charging for software - a novel idea for the time, for almost all software packages in those days were usually sold for free or only a nominal cost, with the vast majority of the profits in the computer industry to be garnered from hardware sales, or from hardware/software bundles. The notion that one could found a highly profitable company that sold only software was an unusual concept to say the least. In fact, Bill Gates famously wrote the 'Open Letter to Hobbyists' that not only decried the rampant copying and unpaid usage of Microsoft's software products within the hacker enthusiast realm, but asserted that the industry should move to a paid software model with intellectual property ownership. Microsoft was therefore at the vanguard of a movement that turned the previously free and collaborative software community and ethos into a true market of firms that charge for their products and can generate immense profits. </p>

<p><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Bill_Gates_Letter_to_Hobbyists.jpg%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Bill_Gates_Letter_to_Hobbyists.jpg&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>
[quote]
Making a product to serve a need is not a byproduct of making money... Making money is a byproduct of serving a need.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>No, I (and theprestige) still have to disagree: making a product is a byproduct of making money. Since rs288 brought up the example of Microsoft, I will continue to mine that rich example because it actually demonstrates my point. Steve Ballmer once famously said that if Microsoft could figure out a way to generate profit without ever having to ship any code at all, they would do it. </p>

<p>And in fact, sometimes that's essentially what Microsoft has done: taken the same product and sold it as two different versions. In fact - and directly contrary to your assertion that good businesses exist to serve its customers first and foremost - Microsoft took its original product and deliberately crippled it in order to develop a version for the lower-end market. For example, the high-end Windows NT Server and the lower-end Windows NT Workstation are the exact same piece of code! The only difference is that Microsoft has simply configured Workstation to be less capable so that customers won't use it as a server, i.e. by gating the number of simultaneous connections it can handle. But it's the same code! Those customers who want a server will have to buy the higher-end and higher priced NT Server package, which is the same code, but with the restrictions removed. In other words, Microsoft has deliberately made its products worse in order to generate more profits. But you can't argue with success, as Microsoft has the largest market cap of any computer firm in the world.</p>

<p>Nor is Microsoft the only example. The computer industry is replete with firms that have deliberately reduced the quality of their products in order to generate more profits. For example, Wolfram's Mathematica software package used to be sold as both a professional grade and a 'student' version which were exactly the same code, the difference being that the student version deliberately chose not to call the PC's math co-processor (which used to be a separate chip from the main microprocessor) so that the computations would run slower. The more expensive IBM LaserPrinter could print 10 pages a minute, whereas the cheaper LaserPrinter Series E could print 5. Yet the Series E was the same as the regular version, but with one extra chip whose only purpose was to slow down the printer by introducing wait states. In other words, IBM spent development dollars to deliberately make its own product worse. </p>

<p>Nor are these examples restricted to the computer industry. Many airlines will famously charge a higher price for round-trip fares to passengers who can't or won't subject themselves to certain travel restrictions such as weekend stayovers, despite the fact that little if any extra cost is imposed on the airline itself. For example, I would probably be charged much more if I booked a round-trip fare that left Monday and returned on Friday than if I booked a trip that left Monday and returned in two Fridays. According to the airline, the cost of serving those two itineraries is basically the same: I need one Monday seat from A to B, and I need one Friday seat from B to A, and flight on one Friday costs the airline probabalistically the same as on any other Friday of the year. So it's basically the same product for which the airline will charge vastly difference prices. Furthermore, as I said above, some firms will choose to deliberately reduce product quality. For example, FedEx will offer to deliver your package to your destination at 10AM the next morning, or the afternoon of the next day. Even if you choose the latter, your package will almost certainly nevertheless arrive at the FedEx warehouse hub early the next morning and ready to be delivered by 10AM, because FedEx runs an integrated distribution system that ships all of its packages together. But if you didn't order the 10AM delivery time, then FedEx will deliberately choose to have the package sit in its warehouse until the afternoon, despite the fact that the morning trucks are going out anyway and could deliver your package. In other words, FedEx actually chooses to schedule 2 separate delivery times (morning and afternoon), when they could just as easily deliver everything in the morning. Similarly, when you choose to use 3-day shipping as opposed to overnight, FedEx often times could probably nevertheless deliver the product overnight, but instead will often times just choose to deliberately have the package sit around in its warehouse for a few days before it is delivered. </p>

<p>Now, obviously, the idea is that the companies simply don't want everybody to buy the "lower-quality" product. Companies want to be able to price discriminate amongst their customers by charging higher prices to higher-end customers. But this has nothing to do with 'serving customers, first and foremost'. If anything, you are deliberately hurting customers by taking an existing product and actually reducing its quality, like IBM adding a chip to its LaserPrinter to actually slow it down. </p>

<p>The_prestige talked about some of the behavioral aspects of marketing. Such a list surely would not be complete with discussing certain music that restaurants/bars will play in order to induce you to eat faster so that they can turn over the tables faster and hence serve more customers, driving up revenue, and certain smells that supermarkets strategically waft (i.e. the smell of freshly baked bread) in order to make you hungrier and hence buy more food. Then of course there is the most insidious form of demand generation of all: the merging of marketing with culture, or what a direct outgrowth of what economists would call a combination of 'positional goods' and 'sign value'. Surely we all remember how girls in high school would try to 'outfashion' the others by buying the latest fashion trends basically in order to compete to be the 'coolest' and most popular. But this is an inherently zero-sum game because obviously only one girl could be the 'coolest' girl at school, and so girls would spend endless amounts of money constantly trying to one-up each other in terms of buying ever more trendy clothes. What was worse was when some girls I know had to beg their parents for money so that they too could buy 'cool' clothes, because they knew that if they didn't, they would be socially ostracized and bullied {the high school social stratification system was quite brutal.} Similarly, fads in kids toys were often times so strong that if you were the only kid in school who didn't have Pokemon or Bratz or whatever, you would be mercilessly taunted. You see this within the hip-hop culture, with rappers singing about driving Cadillac Escalades, Maybachs, and Bentleys; drinking Cristal, Alize, Hennessy, & Courvoisier (Busta Rhymes); wearing Burberry, Timberland, and Nike Air Force Ones (Nelly). Nobody really needs those products, but their frequent mentions in hip-hop vastly increases their demand due to their implantation within hip-hop culture. Nor am I simply talking about artists endorsing products that they honestly like. Microsoft paid Ludacris to place an Xbox in one of his videos. Fabolous was paid to appear in a Reebok commercial despite the fact that he wears Nike's in real life. </p>

<p>Celebrity endorsements in general are a means of artificial demand generation. Does anybody really believe that George Foreman has any special insight into cooking, except for the fact that he's fat and hence likes to eat? Yet the George Foreman grill is one of the top selling grills in the world, and Foreman himself has said that he has made more money from his grill than he did in his entire boxing career, despite the fact that there is little logical reason to believe that the George Foreman endorsed grill is better than any other grill out there. Maria Sharapova doesn't know anything about photography or electronics, yet her endorsement of the Canon Powershot ("Make every shot a powershot!") was one of the most successful ad campaigns in recent times. Brett Favre endorses Wrangler, Dennis Haysbert endorses AllState, Peyton Manning endorses MasterCard, William Shatner endorses Priceline, Brooks Shields endorses Volkswagen. Let's face it: none of these endorsements should logically work, as none of these celebrities has any expertise within the product category they are endorsing. But it does work, as a case of generation of demand that would not otherwise exist at all. Somehow the fact that Maria Sharapova endorses the Canon Powershot camera creates demand for people to buy that camera. On the other hand, if my friend who holds a PhD in electrical engineering from MIT were to endorse the Canon Powershot, nobody would care even though he clearly knows far more about digital cameras than Sharapova does. That's because she's a celebrity and he's not. </p>

<p>And then of course there are companies that knowingly hurt customers by deliberately selling them dangerous products, the most obvious example being the tobacco industry. Tobacco has been one of the most profitable industries in world history - and in fact, was responsible for the economic success of some of the original American colonies such as Virginia and North Carolina, despite selling a product that we all know addicts and kills its customers. Smoking is the #1 cause of preventable deaths in the country. I would hardly call that a matter of 'serving your customers'. Similarly, the economic viability of the later days of the British East India Company was predicated on the opium trade, eventually culminating in the Opium Wars in which China was forced to succumb to legalized opium usage amongst its populace, which ultimately resulting in a whopping 27% of the Chinese male population becoming addicted. Again, I would hardly call that a matter of 'serving its customers'. More like killing its customers. But what can I say? It made the British East Indian Company - and by extension, the British Empire - supremely wealthy. </p>

<p>Look, business is business. Business is about generating profits, first and foremost. Sometimes that involves serving your customers. Sometimes it actually involves screwing your customers, such as a company deliberately lowering the quality of its products, selling a product that is actually dangerous, or simply generating artificial demand where none would naturally exist (again, how exactly does Maria Sharapova manage to convince people to buy cameras?). That's business.</p>