<p>Oh no that is not my point at all. If anything I would retract my statement and offer both states to be inconsequential in strong applicants in which case your previously stated 12k extra Ugrad of Umich would be the factor to why Umich is less selective.</p>
<p>I don't really understand your 2nd argument, UVA is more selective so it drives up the competition and it takes a 4.0 and high SAT scores to get in. In pure numbers, yes Umich is much larger so I'd say it has more top students from a quantitative view.</p>
<p>Either way the end result is the same as what I stated before, which is that the OP can probably call Umich a safety.</p>
<p>Why shouldn't you apply based on prestige? Trust me, you will enjoy the experience much more if you can explain why you chose to go to a college. Selectivity has little to do with a school's "quality". Lots of schools are deliberately forcing selectivity to appear better. Its like diamonds, 90% marketing. With the prestige attitude, you will almost certainly be disappointed, and later in life you will realize that college is not the most important thing in life.</p>
<p>The main reason Berkeley has a lower OOS admit rate than Michigan is that Berkeley is under a statutory mandate to limit its OOS enrollment to 10% of its undergrad student body; its actual rate is about 8% OOS. Michigan is under no such state mandate, and its OOS rate is about 35%. That's an enormous difference. </p>
<p>If anything, the numbers suggest Michigan's applicant pool is stronger---consistent with nationally standardized test results, which consistently show Michigan HS students outperforming California HS students, on average, largely because Michigan invests considerably more in K-12 education than California does. The stats of entering students at Michigan and Berkeley are almost identical; but if Michigan achieves that level by admitting 40-50% of its applicants, while California achieves the same level by admitting only about 25% of its applicants, then the only reasonable inference is that Michigan's applicants are, on average, better qualified. This is just one of the many absurdities of the US News ranking system; you're rewarded in the "selectivity" factor and therefore in the overall rankings by having a less qualified but larger applicant pool than a comparable school that manages to enroll a similar class out of a smaller but better-qualified applicant pool (call this the "University of Chicago syndrome").</p>
<p>Should OP treat Michigan as a "safety"? Well, maybe; she's certainly a strong candidate, likely in the top quartile of Michigan applicants. But on the other hand, I've seen lots of stories on CC about moninally well qualified candidates being deferred, waitlisted, or rejected by Michigan. Why would they do this? Well, if a candidate is only using Michigan as a "safety" and shows no real interested in the school, why should Michigan admit here? Very likely she's going elsewhere, to a school she regards as more "prestigious" (and it's perfectly clear this is OP's only criterion). so getting into Michigan does nothing for her, and it certainly does nothing for the school. All it does is drive down Michigan's selectivity by driving up its acceptance rate. If I were Michigan, knowing what I know, I'd reject her out of hand. It may be less clear to their admissions committee from the application, but then again, maybe not. So bottom line, I'd say if you're only considering Michigan a "safety," it's probably a "reach." And if you don't care about it enough to include it in your "reach" category, you probably shouldn't even bother applying, because you're only wasting your time and theirs.</p>
<p>LESS reaches. stick with your top five...and trim those if you can, too. try to pick just three out of the five, i'd say. also, i wouldn't call nyu a safety, really. more like between a match and a safety. here is where i would apply if i were you:</p>
<p>harvard
mit
stanford
cornell
northwestern
berkeley
jhu
wisconsin
rutgers</p>
<p>Dont rely too much on your sats if you want to go the top ivies. You have to distinguish yourself from the pack who apply there with similar stats. What do you love? How are you different than the typical IVY guy or woman? Also visit them and get a sense of where you feel most "at home".</p>
<p>I second the person who suggested that you figure out why you want to go to each specific school. Without that, for the ivies in particular, you aren't going to get in. Everyone wants to go there because they're high status. Find a reason that each of the schools is the RIGHT PLACE for you. What do you have to offer them? How can you benefit from what they have to offer?
This past year I watched as valedictorians with connections were rejected from many of the schools they applied to, while kids who seemed to be a notch below were accepted. Don't assume your stats will get you in. All they will do is get someone to read your application. You're going to have to convince each school that it is the right place for you and the easiest way to do that is to find the schools that are actually good matches. Oh... and being a good match doesn't mean that you have to be someone who you are not, just make sure they know who you are and how that fits with them. Good luck!</p>
<p>
[quote]
I've seen lots of stories on CC about moninally well qualified candidates being deferred, waitlisted, or rejected by Michigan.
[/quote]
I've seen those too, but the ones I've seen are of people who had applied at the last minute. I will certainly be applying very early, near early decision time (it's rolling admissions, rite?). </p>
<p>Also, I really do like Michigan. I grew up there, even though I live about a few thousand miles away now, but it's a beautiful place and the midwest is beautiful as well. I like it more than my "matches" and some of my reaches.</p>
<p>I honestly do think that Michigan is pretty safety-ish for me, though, especially if I apply early. People from my school have gotten in with 300-400 lower SAT points and three quarters of a GPA point lower. Plus I haven't listed my entire stats, like awards and clubs, so i think it'll probably be hard to tell my chances at most schools...</p>