<p>
</p>
<p>I’d say the OP’s chances at Michigan would be slim to none. Their median unweighted GPA this year for admitted students was 3.85, and they’ve always weighed GPA more heavily than test scores in their admissions process. Also note that after several years of explosive growth in applications, their overall admit rate this year was down to 33%, and undoubtedly lower than that (25%?) for OOS students. OP’s standardized test scores are strong, especially the 34 ACT which is the equivalent of a 2250 SAT CR+M+W, but I’d say Michigan is at best high reach for this applicant. </p>
<p>“Terrible junior year grades” are a huge red flag, regardless of the cause. You might try explaining in an essay, but I wouldn’t expect it to work miracles. After all, what evidence do they have that the same problems won’t adversely affect your academic performance in college? </p>
<p>One approach would be to plan in a gap year after HS, set aside the college planning for now, and just concentrate on getting those senior year grades up. Then your freshman applications for the fall of 2015 can show an entire year of stellar grades following that disastrous junior year. That might be enough to convince college admissions committees that you’ve got your act together and that you’re applying yourself.</p>