Look at it the other way: these schools turn down two-thirds to three-quarters of applicants. Unless he was above the 75th percentile stats wise at these schools, again, it’s not really so surprising he was not an admit. The fact that he was deferred, early, indicates to me it’s not aid that’s an issue. It’s how he stacks up against presumably many other applicants in a similar stats range to him, and what might differentiate him from them for holistic schools. The fact is that they still want to evaluate him against the RD pool.