Hm, that’s kind of what I thought might have happened. He might be have ranked safety/target/reach appropriately by stats, but you need to take admit rates into account too. A number of those schools have admit rates in the teens, or even single digits (like bowdoin). Those don’t make them matches- common wisdom on CC seems to be anything with admit rate below 20% should be classed as a reach, stats notwithstanding. That said, there are some on your list with notably higher admit rates, and he should stand a much better chance there.