Note that some colleges do not like to be used as “safeties” by “overqualified” applicants who are more likely to attend a more selective college. Hence they use “level of applicant’s interest” to determine if such an “overqualified” applicant is using them as a low choice “safety” (which tends to result in waitlist or rejection) versus an actual high choice. Such colleges should not be considered “safeties”.
Another possibility is that the desired major is oversubscribed at the college, so that applicants indicating that major face much greater competition. Also, if a performing arts major requires an audition, that is likely very important, so that stats alone cannot give a good prediction.