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I agree that top programs can be found in several places, and that having a good mentor can make the difference between TT placement and failure.</p>
<p>That said, the quality of the program can be of TREMENDOUS importance for placement. In my field, Chicago absolutely dominates all other programs. Its graduates make up between 50 and 75% of all tenure-track professors in the field (I counted once). Penn is a distant second, with NYU, Berkeley, Yale, Hopkins, and Brown bringing up the rear (roughly that order). Michigan and UCLA have excellent programs but have failed, as far as I know, to place a single student into a TT position.</p>