How accurate are the chances on Parchment & Cappex?

<p>How accurate?</p>

<p>At least for Parchment, the acceptance rates shown on the scatterplots seem to be consistently higher than the actual chances, however Parchment users are likely not representative of the average applicant. The Parchment scatterplots, however, did closely match Naviance data for my daughter’s high school. The filter capabilities and the amount of data displayed in each scatterplot allow one to better determine odds for a given demographic.</p>

<p>I would not put too much stock in the odds on the profile page, however, they can be useful as a tool for determining which schools to apply to.</p>

<p>I often used scatterplots on Cappex as a tool for chancing but never the chancing predictors…</p>

<p>I became briefly obsessed with Cappex during my senior year, analyzing the chances it gave me constantly. Looking back, they really weren’t accurate. For example, my chances were higher for a college I got waitlisted at than a college I was accepted to. They gave me a higher chance at Princeton than Cornell (Rejected Princeton, accepted Cornell). So don’t look too much into it. </p>

<p>Do not use Parchment or Cappex to chance yourself. Their predictions are inaccurate. Their scatterplots, on the other hand, if used correctly, can help you figure out which colleges favor a high GPA versus a high SAT score.</p>

<p>All these chancing sites are just for your reference. Their prediction is limited by their biased small sample size. In addition, I found their database not to be updated frequently and their admission rate data are often at least 1 year behind. As Parchment is used by many schools for student transcript submission, the sample size should be larger and in a more random way. If you understand there will be a large margin of error and it may overestimate your chance, those sites are helpful to give you the relative likelihood of admission to the schools on your list. The percentage chance may be not accurate, but the order of chances for different schools would still be informative.</p>

<p>@Ranza123 I won’t because they can’t factor in things like essays, ECs and letters. I’m just curious because my chance for UChicago is like 10% on Parchment and the middle of the bar on Cappex. </p>

<p>D used Cappex as an organizational tool for the colleges and in that way, it was useful. The scattergrams were pretty accurate but you have to really take everything into account. It’s not enough to look at the blue and green dots under your personal stats marker… you also have to look at all the red and yellow underneath it. Someone else with your stat might have been accepted to a highly selective school but a hundred more were rejected or waitlisted. In that case, it’s really just letting you know if you are somewhat in range or not. At the local state school, there was a clear cut-off of which stats got in and which didn’t. You could really see it on the scattergram and they are quite accurate in those cases. Those sites can be helpful in research but don’t take their predictions too much to heart.</p>