How are my chances for more selective universities?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

Hi! I’m a rising senior starting my college apps, and I would really love any opinions on if I am even a competitive applicant for some of these schools (Ivies, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, Vanderbilt, UChicago, Duke, etc.). I already have guaranteed admission to my state school, and I have several match schools that I have already picked out, but I just wanted to know if I stood any reasonable chance of being considered for any higher-tier institutions. Any help at all is greatly appreciated!
-I am a white female from the Midwest, I attend a very small public school, and I do not have any legacy/URM/athlete status
Intended major: Physics

Academics/Test Scores:
SAT - 1530 ( 740 Reading/Writing, 790 Math)
PSAT (I know colleges don’t look at this but I do meet criteria for National Merit): 1480
ACT - 35, 36 if super-scored (1st - 36 R, 35 M, 36 W, 31 S) (2nd - 36 R, 36 W, 36 S, 33 M)
Unweighted GPA - 4.0
Weighted GPA - 4.12
Class Rank - 1/62
AP/Honor Classes - already taken - AP Chemistry, AP Calc AB, Honors US History
- next year - AP Physics, AP Bio, AP Lit, AP Calc BC
SAT Subjects - taking Math 2 and Chemistry in August, Physics in October

ECs (my school is small/rural, so there aren’t many clubs):
Cheerleading (Captain)
ALA Girls State
Scholastic Bowl (Varsity Captain, named to several All-Tournament and 2 All Sectional Teams)
National Honor Society
Drama Club (Clerk/Historian)
Academic Challenge (State- Second place in Chem, 5th in Math)
Newspaper (News Editor)
Journalism Team (State qualifier for news writing and editorial writing)
Band (2nd chair flute)
Speech Team
Jazz Choir
Key Club
Girl Scouts

I have done volunteering in my community (probably 100ish hours), mostly with a local environmental charity and a foundation that helps disadvantaged kids afford to be part of our music program, and I am working towards my Gold Award partnering with my local library and a nearby women and children’s center to set up a program that allows kids there to still have access to the library and its educational resources.

Again, I am aware that the higher-ranked colleges (especially the Ivies) turn away many qualified students, and I know that in the end a lot of this comes down to luck, but I just would like someone’s opinions on whether or not I would be a reasonable candidate for these schools!

2

Depending on your state, if your SSI qualifies for National Merit semi-finalists, then, based on your academics and your SAT, you are almost certainly a National Merit Finalist, as well (just remember to apply!!!).

It all depends on what you would call “reasonable”. Essentially, nobody has a “reasonable” chance for acceptance at any college with an average acceptance rate of under 15%.

They’re reaches, and your chances of being rejected from any of them is somewhere between 98% and 80%. Nobody can know, because nobody knows who else is applying, and how many. Acceptance rates to the selective schools will continue to drop, so any numbers from last year are defunct.

In all honesty, though, why are you applying to any of them? When a student comes on here and is asking “what are my chances of being accepted to a T-20 college”, it indicates that they are thinking only of prestige, and, as major reasons go, “prestige” is fairly bad.

3

Thank you for your help! I really admire the resources and academic rigor at these colleges, coupled with the opportunities that they offer for more focused undergraduate research. I have other colleges lined up, but I would really love to be able to go to one of these schools.

4

In other words: “these are prestigious colleges, and I want to attend a prestigious college”. Which ones have the programs in which you will fit the best? Do you know what “resources” or “opportunities” you require or want? You should answer these questions to yourself, before you start choosing colleges in general, not just reaches.

What may hurt you in all of the colleges you mentioned is that your ECs do not have a physics or math focus. You are competing for admission with kids with extensive EC activities and awards related to physics and math, and most of the schools you mentioned will look at these.

Moreover, there is nothing in your profile which indicates that you are prepared for the level and amount of math that are required for an undergraduate degree in physics. That, in and of itself, may hurt your chances of acceptance to more selective physics programs.

PS. Physics at UIUC would definitely be a safety, however, because physics is now in the College of Engineering, undergraduate requirements in physics may be a lot heavier on math than it would have been had physics still been in LAS. Even elsewhere.

5

Thanks again for your advice! Unfortunately, as my school is so small, there is not many extracurriculars offered outside of what I am involved in, and I cannot create my own due to a lack of student interest. However, some of my volunteer work has allowed me to work with a local Planetary Society, and I will be taking a course in astronomy through my local community college in the fall outside of my high school course load. I am also in contact with a professor at a college that is only a few hours from me regarding possible involvement with her research in radio astronomy, and I am optimistic about future involvement with her work. As for math, I have been placed in the advanced math track in my school, in addition to skipping a grade in late elementary school, that allowed me to take high school level courses while I was still in 7th/8th grade, I have earned straight A’s in all of these including AP Calc AB, which my math teacher will attest to in her letter of recommendation as well as my work ethic and motivation, and I am taking AP Calc BC next year as an online course because it is not offered by my school. Additionally, as shown in my original stats, I have placed in a math based competition on the state level. As for my wanting to study at an Ivy League, I am well aware of the doors that they might open later in my career, but I am not applying thinking that they will be a lock like some other students. I am very conscious of the qualities that I am looking for in a school and I have looked for these in my match, safety, and low reach schools, but I just wanted outside opinions on whether or not it would even be worth applying. Again, thank you for all of your advice. It has given me some insight into some areas that I can focus on more!

6

You do have strong stats and ECs, and I encourage you to apply to any of the schools you named. I would not be concerned at all that “there is not many extracurriculars offered outside of what I am involved in”, because colleges, such as Princeton, want to know what you have learned from your ECs and how these have sparked your intellectual inquiries, rather than how many clubs you have participated or started. In fact, your ECs underscore that breadth of your interests: arts; music; service; journalism. Craft outstanding essays to tell them who you are, how you have served your community, to spotlight your expanded and positive outlook in life, and your ability to think clearly, to connect with others, while conveying a sense of modesty. You have the numbers and ECs, it is down to your essays.

7

They don’t just want to know what you learned from ECs. They look for what choices and what they represent, first. Whether there are activities that represent the stated interests, how you pursued depth and breadth. I agree with @MWolf that they’ll notice this misses more stem actvity. As it stands right now, OP will need to hope Scholastic Bowl represents collaborative stem work to the adcoms. If she takes the astronomy course, at least that’s something. If she gets the internship (even a short time,) better.

Add to that, she’s taking AP physics as a senior. When did you take your first physics class? Why are you interested in this major? You can try to get a knockout LoR from the AP teacher, but by December, that and the grade represent only one semester.

I’m not discouraging OP. But now’s the time to make up for what’s missing. And, taking the AP she has planned may be one heck of a challenge.

In holistic, for tippy tops, it all matters. They’ll understand any school limitations, but you still need to show initiative in finding all the pieces. It’s very “Show, not just tell.” That’s a lot more than essays.

8

Your stats are impressive. Shoot your shot. Good luck!

9

Just one more comment of “higher tier”. The point of college is to get you where you want to be in life. For the vast majority of careers, having a degree from Duke or UChicago will not put you in any better place than a degree from UIUC, and definitely not from a degree from UMich.

It is OK to have a reach, so long as that reach would actually provide a boost to your career goals that will not be provided by another, less expensive, college. As rule, the Big Name private universities/colleges cost a lot more than public ones which provide equivalent educations.

That being said, you are in Illinois, and UIUC is notoriously stingy with financial aid. A Physics degree from UIUC will cost you about $36,500 a year, or about $164,000 total. At many private colleges families with a wide range of lower middle class and middle class incomes will pay less than that.

Reaches should have the same criteria as any other college: A. is it a good fit for you? Each of the colleges you mentioned is very different than the others, and it is likely that you would do a lot better at one of your matches or safeties than at many of that list. B. Can your family afford it? C. Is it worth any extra expense it will incur, compared to your cheapest option?

Finally - You seem more interested in astronomy than in physics. While astronomy requires a large amount of physics, and astrophysics is often placed within astronomy, there are many colleges which have astronomy programs. If you are looking to choose reaches, look for those with astronomy undergraduate programs. That should also likely go for your targets and safeties as well.

PS. Looking at your profile, I think that you may find it worthwhile to look at liberal arts colleges.

10

Your profile has potential. It all depends on how you present yourself in your writing. Have you thought about how you are going to approach your essay?