@data10 exactly. We can look at the data from our school and see how many kids got into, say, Duke. S19 knows the kids. Knows their rigor and their grades and their scores. Everyone shares. Obviously knows if they are URM which is almost never the case at our school. So we do see patterns. Duke did take unhooked kids last year in ED. So did Wash U. Vanderbilt did not. Northwestern did not. Dartmouth did not. Princeton did not. Brown did not. Georgetown did not. Schools have been pretty consistent over the last few years as to who they accept in ED. Applying to most elite schools ED from our high schools is a wasted ED.
Basically, Ivies take only athletes or legacies from our school. Our high school wins state in multiple sports each year so Ivies know they can dip in and get themselves full pay, bright athletes here. They take those and don’t take anyone else. Being a student athlete at our school is the best way to get into an elite school. Recruited athletes many times know they are being recruited and tell other kids and that can even affect where the non athletes apply. Two athletes recruited to Cornell? No one else will probably bother with ED or even RD. Stinks but that’s what’s been happening.
One can look at the overall acceptance rates but it’s the acceptance rates from your high school that can paint the clearest picture.