How can I make my dad realize I can't get into the colleges he is convinced I can get into..?

[ItsJustSchool]

Quotes from the 2014 article referenced above:

getting into college actually isn’t any harder than it was a decade ago. It’s just that the odds of admission to your particular college may have decreased.

getting into any specific school is less likely than it was a few years ago, and certainly more difficult than it was 15 years ago

the number of American high school seniors is shrinking, having peaked in 2011. At the same time, according to Noodle’s data, the number of seats at competitive colleges has grown faster than the total pool of qualified applicants—raising a student’s chances of getting into a “selective college,” though not necessarily the one she has her heart set on. (Case in point: my alma mater Johns Hopkins, a fairly selective, four-year private research university, has added about a third more seats since I graduated in 1998

The article implies that getting into a competitive (i.e. “equivalent”) school to your first choice, or your first choice, is no harder than it was before; but getting into a specific target school (e.g., your first choice) from within a group of similar schools is becoming more difficult every year.