Two of my children applied ED to reach schools and both of them got deferred. They were both in the middle 50% at these schools, but probably in the section of the top part of the bottom 50% rather than the top half. Both schools have below 20% admissions rates. We are from an overrepresented area with no hooks and need financial aid. ED for us at these schools was a wasted effort. Most of the kids who got into these schools from our school have an athletic recruitment component to their application, and while some had stats just as good as my children, others didn’t, making Naviance data skewed and unreliable in assessing our children’s chances. I agree with the advice to not waste your ED. Go for the school that is more in the “within reach” than in the “high reach” category for you unless you are a truly “stand-out” candidate with a significant talent or accomplishment. The whole process is excrutiating for these kids. (How do you spell excrutiating?)