<p>One big difference applies to the OP- he/she apparently has superb college counseling. The GCs apparently take the long and broad view that a fine application for a top school can be carefully crafted, begnning early. Clearly, results prove out. I believe this means OP is not in a standard pool of highly qualified applicants. Statistical probability may take on a unique form. One would have to factor in the particular rep of the hs (which adcoms will know, in detail) and the success of prior admits at the specific colleges they matriculated at. Plus, GC pull (which is partly based in how well the GC matches certain kids to certain colleges.)
I’ve seen it. Despite any protestations, a good GC can not only make the adcom’s work easier, he/she knows how to write the right recommendation.
This doesn’t answer the thread question- we don’t know secifics.</p>