How do you know when a school is "safety" enough?

<p>I totally agree with the folks who have stated that no Ivy or very selective school can ever be considered a safety or even a match because the acceptance rates are so ridiculously low. My S is one of those outstanding students (1st in his class, top scores, all 5’s on AP, great EC, etc., etc.) who just got deferred SCEA from Yale. These schools deny thousands of top students every year. The only caveat I would add to this discussion- if a student has all these credentials plus is a recruited athlete or big time legacy student (which my son is neither), then and probably only then could they think of one of these schools as a match if not a safety. </p>

<p>And I think the advice on picking a true safety that the student wants to go to and the family can afford is crucial. For my S, he has two of these schools on his list - Stony Brook and U. of Rochester (who already offered him scholarship money in his Junior year if he gets accepted). Happily, he likes them both so if the top schools turn him down or accept him and don’t offer enough aid, then he can be happy accepting from one of his safety schools. (After he got deferred last week, I started panicking that he needed more safeties. By this week, I realize two safeties that he likes are sufficient). </p>

<p>In today’s world of college applications, even if a student’s credentials are far above what the school says they require, you never know in the end how they are putting that class together. One of his friends - perfect SATs, sport champion, tops in his class, etc. - was turned down by every school on his list a year ago except his safety. Luckily, he was happy to go there. The same thing happened to the girlfriend of a friend of his. It really gives you pause.</p>