How has the admissions game changed in the past 5 years? And a request for guidance.

Parents Forum
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<p>Hello all!</p>

<p>I was very active in these forums back in 2005 and 2008, when my two kids were applying. (Yes, they were both accepted and have graduated! Thanks for asking:)) Now my best friend's son is a high school senior and needs some help. Although he has a college counselor, he's at a very big school, and would like a friendly voice to weigh in. He and his family have been out of the country for several years, and asked me about chances, selectivity, etc. But I'm out of date! So I am asking you all, pretty please, for some thoughts.</p>

<p>First, the boy's profile. And thank you so much, in advance.</p>

<p>SATs: R 700 M 780 W 720</p>

<p>Grades: 3.9ish, weighted. This includes 2 years at a European American school IB program. His grades range from a few Bs in classes like British Literature and Current Affairs, to A+ to A- in math and the sciences, including Comp Sci. He's been at a competitive East Coast public high school last year and will be there this year too. </p>

<p>Activities: He doesn't quite fit the Math/Science guy stereotype, in that he's played sports all through high school, and while he competed on the Math Team, he didn't spend his time in labs etc. He played basketball actively in the European school, but in America, the level of performance is much higher, and he's been playing JV lacrosse. Where he was the MVP and nominated to be captain:).</p>

<p>Personal: He's a very social, affable, functional kid, with high intelligence and a good heart. Note that his parents spent absolutely zero time pushing him, packaging him, tutoring him, etc. For example, his only SAT coaching was an hour spent with my son (who does it for a living but this was a friendly session). But that also means that there's no visible activity-based passion, just a kid you might have known 20 years ago and thought, "Wow! Smart kid, good head on his shoulders, will probably go far."</p>

<p>Family: Standard UMC white kid. Parents are divorced, father's salary will make any financial aid out of the question. We will assume that the family will pay, but I'm also going to give them a list of merit scholarships, given the potential family dynamics and some estrangement.</p>

<p>Here's the question. At what level of selectivity will this kid have a solid chance? I suppose we are talking about his Matches, in the language we used 10 years ago. Not quite sure what we call them now:).</p>

<p>For example, Dartmouth. Out of the question? What about Northwestern? Still too high? </p>

<p>His family had never seen the US News list. Not that it's correct, but it is a starting place for the universe of colleges. Another way to pose the question is - where on the USN&WR list, in the opinion of this esteemed group, can he start to look with a >80% chance of acceptance?</p>

<p>I know that this is a very uncertain business. No guarantees expected or required. But your honest gut feelings would be much appreciated, if only so that I can help set this wonderful kid's expectations, and steer him towards the great colleges that he might not be thinking about yet.</p>

<p>Thank you, thank you, thank you. This place was a lifeline for me, back when, and I'd really love to be able to help my friend and her son.</p>

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<p>Well, Dartmouth and Northwestern aren’t matches, for sure, but they may not be out of the picture entirely. Is he going to take SAT one more time?</p>

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<p>Alum- your friend’s son needs to check in with the guidance counselor and take a look at the Naviance numbers for kids from his school with stats like his. If by “competitive East Coast High School” you mean Horace Greely or Stuy or a school like that- than class rank will be very important. And most of the colleges likely to be on his radar will know lots about the high school.</p>

<p>We can all randomly throw out anecdotes (Try Muhlenberg for a safety! My nephew was rejected from Franklin and Marshall even though his older brother with lower scores was accepted three years earlier! He’s a shoe-in at Wesleyan!) none of it will mean anything without some calibration from his HS. Once he sees the pattern of whereabouts he fits, we can help you round out the list with some schools he’s never heard of (Reed, Whitman, Pomona, Rice) as well as some of the Northeastern perennials.</p>

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<p>Hi Alu!!! Long time, no see!! So glad to see you!!!</p>

<p>Does the kiddo have any preference regarding size, feel, location?</p>

<p>Was thinking maybe Davidson, Wake…smart along with athletic.</p>

<p>I like blossom’s advice about having the son check with hs to see other students’ previous success in the last 2 years. Things have changed, son is an alum interviewer and he has seen some changes in the last few years. Although not always what one expects.</p>

<p>So good to hear from you!</p>

<p>Kat</p>

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<p>Those SATs aren’t going to make anything absolutely impossible, but he’s not going to be a shoe-in at highly selective colleges either. I agree his GC is going to have the best guess for what is plausible - though the overseas school will put more uncertainty into the equation. For my younger son who graduated high school in 2010, for example, unweighted GPA was B+ to A- depending on what you counted. (School said it was 93 and his rank was top 6%). His weighted GPA was 97, his scores were lopsided the other way 790CR 690M. His Naviance made it clear that the tippy top tier of schools (HYMPSCC) were all completely out of reach, but one level down (U of Chicago - in 2010 - unfortunately it’s now been discovered, Vassar, and Tufts were all interested in a verbal boy.) </p>

<p>I would guess that a lot of decisions will be made on how he comes off on the soft parts of his application. What will his junior year teachers say about him? Can he use his European high school experiences to his advantage? In my experience with two very different kids the kid who can choose teachers strategically (and has made the necessary good impressions!) and write up a storm can do far better than you might expect.</p>

<p>BTW, he looks like a good match for Vassar, <a href=“http://admissions.vassar.edu/about/statistics/”>http://admissions.vassar.edu/about/statistics/&lt;/a&gt; , but he may be too much of a math/science guy to be really happy there. Has he thought at all about size or location? Vassar was the only LAC on younger son’s list because it was in a city and almost as big as his high school.</p>

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<p>He may want to read <a href=“Before you ask which colleges to apply to, please consider - College Search & Selection - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1621234-before-you-ask-which-colleges-to-apply-to-please-consider-p1.html&lt;/a&gt; , then sign up for an account and start asking questions.</p>

<p>Given the divorced parent situation and the possible financial implications, he may want start his list with an affordable safety based on list price or automatic-for-stats merit scholarships. The lists at <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/financial-aid-scholarships/1678964-links-to-popular-threads-on-scholarships-and-lower-cost-colleges.html”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/financial-aid-scholarships/1678964-links-to-popular-threads-on-scholarships-and-lower-cost-colleges.html&lt;/a&gt; can be worth a look. In-state public universities should also be considered, depending on their in-state costs, financial aid, and scholarships.</p>

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<p>Mathmom- I have been out of the admissions game since 2008 also- The poster’s SAT scores for the student in question look darn good to me. What is the highest score now in SAT’s? And what do the more selective colleges look for 100% or close to it?</p>

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<p>Also note that college web sites now have net price calculators to give financial aid estimates. With a divorced parent situation, both parents’ income and assets should be included, unless the college explicitly says that it does not consider the non-custodial parent or uses only the FAFSA form (most schools with good financial aid also use CSS Profile and non-custodial parent information). If any income is from self-employment, small business, real estate, etc., it would be a good idea to run a “worst case” financial aid scenario with revenue before any related deductions as well as the normal scenario using net income.</p>

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<p>Alumother, here is my honest opinion. Without the input of a true pro, the kid faces an uphill battle at the CC darling schools. His type of application will contain numerous pitfalls associated with an advantaged student. </p>

<p>My recommendation would be to RUN to a high priced counselor (and forget all that Naviance mumbo jumbo or averages) to work on an excellent packaging to chosen reaches and matches. Essays and defined EC will play a large role. </p>

<p>If Dartmouth is attractive, remember who wrote A is for Admission! That is where my pesos would go! </p>

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<p>if Dartmouth is attractive, apply ED. Or ED to another very attractive school such as Northwestern or Duke.</p>

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<p>With good essays, many schools are possible ED, but he can only choose 1 (or 2, with ED2).</p>

<p>What type of schools does he like? I believe many LACs (NESCAC, but also others) like sporty types. Is he good enough for DivIII in any sport?</p>

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<p>

</p>

<p>That is a very good question. The 80 percent chance eliminates most if not all the privates in the top 50 universities and top 10 in the LAC. Had he been a girl, a LAC would have been included, especially in the ED round. </p>

<p>The 80 percent chance will be an affair for most public schools in the first pages of the USNews as they are mostly score driven. The SAT/GPA should ensure a long look at ANY of the public listed and thus start at 20th on the USNews. At that level, this candidate should be higher than 80 percent. The lower one goes, the chances for merit aid increases. </p>

<p>If you look at mild reaches, your universe also starts at the schools ranked around Cal on the USNews) … known names as Vanderbilt, Emory, Rice, Notre Dame. The chances, however, are not at that 80 percent level but much lower than that. Anything above has much lower chances, with the exception (perhaps) of Cornell.</p>

<p>Fwiw, I do not think that there are reasons to play the athletic card. The sought levels in terms of admissions are much higher than JV participation. The focus should be on high scores (for the school targeted) and a potential strong presentation in the essays. </p>

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<p>

Well, they are good scores, and they will be top scores for many colleges. But not really (for example) for Dartmouth, where they are middling. See
<a href=“https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org/college-university-search/dartmouth-college”>https://bigfuture.collegeboard.org/college-university-search/dartmouth-college&lt;/a&gt;
Even that excellent 780 in math doesn’t put you in the top 25% of Dartmouth applicants.</p>

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</p>

<p>With apologies for being technical, the 780 is exactly at the top 25%. Unless one believes that the enrolled pool is weaker than the overall applicants’ one, chances are that a 780 M scores places you solidly in the top 25 percent of applicants. </p>

<p><a href=“http://www.dartmouth.edu/~oir/pdfs/cds-2013-14-updated-8-15-14.pdf”>This Page Has Moved;

<p>On the other hand, the 700R might be a bigger issue at D since the 25th percentile is 680. My take is that the reading scores at the Ivy League carries a lot more importance than the M scores. </p>

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<p>@xiggi:</p>

<p>I frankly doubt that he would have much difficulty getting in to big privates like NYU, BU, and Northeastern. UMiami as well. On the other hand, UNC’s OOS admit rate is as low as some Ivies’. Also, my understanding is that many state schools weight GPA more heavily while the privates I mentioned are more likely to weigh test scores more.</p>

<p>BTW, being a guy would actually be an advantage with most LACs.</p>

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<p>I think it’s hard to recommend schools without knowing what type of environment he’s looking for. Big/small, rural/urban, geeky/sporty etc etc and potentially what he would like to study. </p>

<p>There are many, many schools he could get into, but finding out what “fits” him is more important</p>

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<p>

Point taken, but to be even more technical, if some of the scorers in the middle group received 780, doesn’t that mean that a score of 780 puts you in, maybe, the top 26%, or even 30%? (That is, if, say 30% get 780 or higher, getting 780 doesn’t put you in the top 25%.) No matter, the 780 is a great score.</p>

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<p>I’m not sure I’d go about it looking for 80% acceptance probability. With his stats, the matches are not going to be at that level of acceptance. Maybe think about 30-50% acceptance as match potential, which puts you looking at places like Boston College (and Boston University), NYU and Michigan (and several other high-profile state universities if he would go that route) or LACs like Bucknell. </p>

<p>As long as he doesn’t confuse “match” with “safety”, I think this would be appropriate. There is still a significant chance of rejection at match schools. I say this knowing nothing about his high school or Naviance stats, of course, which might push him up or down, depending.
And as another poster mentioned, being male at an LAC is a slight advantage at most, although it sounds like a sports culture might be important, so I’d be sensitive to that. Some LACs offer it in a big way; others, not so much.</p>

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<p>Yes, Hunt, but then I believe that all the identical scorers should have the same higher percentile. </p>

<p>800, 790, 780, 780, 780, 760, 760, 760, 760, 750. 740, 730.</p>

<p>How would we decide that Little Susan is the 3d, 4th, or 5th student? </p>

<p>This is obviously a completely rhetorical and irrelevant question as we are splitting hairs. On the other hand, there might be some released material by Dartnouth that describes the score ranges of applicants or admitted students vs enrolled. Yet, this will not be very instructive to the OP. The kid does indeed have great scores for almost every school in the nation. </p>

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<p>Hi @Alumother‌ </p>

<p>It’s so nice of you to inquire for your friend. Sounds like he will be a great candidate for admissions, but what is the family’s goal for the son? </p>

<p>For example, do they want him to get into an Ivy League or do they want him to graduate college debt-free or do they want him to get the best education possible?</p>