<p>Your list of schools does not include any safeties for anyone, although Berkeley and UCLA probably fall into the admission match category rather than the admission reach category.</p>
<p>However, determining reach/match/safety also depends on your cost limit and financial aid situation. Your safety schools must be definitely affordable as well as definite for admission. Berkeley and UCLA will be $22,000 per year short on need-based financial aid for out-of-state students. What is your state of residency?</p>
<p>Note that a lot of less selective schools have excellent math and/or physics departments, assuming you want to major in those subjects. For example, Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Stony Brook, Purdue, etc… It is certainly possible to get into a top PhD program in your major from a good state university that is not all that selective (e.g. Sparky’s sunny school). However, your academic credentials do give you a chance at even the most selective schools (but then murky non-academic criteria make the chance of admission low and not that predictable for everyone).</p>
<p>Given that you are so advanced in math, you may want to check carefully whether the smaller schools (particularly the undergraduate-only LACs) have enough advanced math courses to keep you interested if you major in math.</p>