How important are senior year grades for those students who had a bad junior year?

I had a somewhat really bad junior year due to familial circumstances and plan on having that explained on my application. However, I have heard that many students with bad junior years have a disadvantage despite what has been going on. I went down a few decimals, to somewhere around a 3.85ish (I think?). But I think I can do well in my classes this year and bring that up for sure. My class load includes more AP and higher level classes than last year. Will colleges consider an improvement a reassurance that I could be capable of a harder class load despite circumstances? Or will it not matter as much? I’m planning on applying to colleges that are in the top 20 schools (selectivity around 5-30ish percent).
Thanks!
I’d also love to hear if anyone knows of any students getting into selective colleges despite a bad junior year? Or what happened to them.

You only submit seven semesters’ worth of grades. Of course your most advanced and most recent ones matter enormously. However you’re hyper analyzing the “slippage” of a few decimal points during your JR year. No one has good odds applying to T20 schools. Apply if it’s your mind to do so – you’re not completely unrealistic – just don’t hold out undue expectations. Good luck.

I guess I should clarify, I mean my overall GPA dropped down and my junior year GPA plummeted.

Sorry to hear that – then gird yourself to ace this semester’s tough courses. It can be done. Good luck to you.

Might it be too little too late? Maybe for some tippy top schools – but there’s enormous value in going out strong. This predicts how your freshman year will go – easy or hard. The eventual school you attend isn’t everything – adults know that.

Yeah, I think I might do better this year. I’m also looking into other schools, I’m just wanting to prepare myself and maybe even motivate myself.

Sorry for being so vague. I’m new to the site and I’m not completely sure how much to share.
But, my junior year gpa was around a 3.4 while I was taking about 5 ap classes. My overall is somewhere in the 3.8 gpa range (it used to be 3.9). I hope I wasn’t being too dramatic when I said ‘plummeted’.
I am taking about 6 ap’s. I hope that there will be an upward trend.
Thanks for the replies, btw!