<p>I've been reading CC for a long time and have poked around the chances subforum here, and CC has provided me a trove of information I would have never found elsewhere, BUT I have one nagging question.</p>
<p>Here it is: For competitive universities, I've seen the actual average SAT scores, GPA and other stats from the universities themselves, but when I go to CC and look at the chances threads by those seeking admission to the same university with an average SAT score (for that particular university) being told that they "have no chance."</p>
<p>Has anyone else noticed this phenomena? After reading so many chances threads, I feel I don't even have a chance at most competitive universities, even though I'm very much an above average applicant. (Not going to bring in my own stats here)</p>
<p>What do you think?</p>
<p>(Oh yeah, and I'll try to find some example threads)</p>
<p>“Chances” threads are ridiculous, especially for the most selective institutions, because the information presented in them is probably 50% – at most, probably less – of the relevant information on which admissions decisions are based. (And let’s not forget that the accuracy of the information presented is often highly questionable.) Furthermore, most of that information doesn’t do much to differentiate successful from unsuccessful applicants. Stuff that makes a huge difference includes essays, recommendations, and the admissions staff’s knowledge about particular high school environments. Even if people posting in chances threads knew what they were talking about – some do, many don’t – it would be like trying to predict who would win a round of seven-card stud based on four cards showing, and without being able to observe anyone’s betting.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding that, I think there are two valuable things that chances threads do. First, they remind you that the students rejected from top colleges have transcripts and resumes that are not much different from the ones accepted. Based on your stats, you may fit perfectly well into a college’s most recent enrolled freshman class, but all that may mean is that you have an average – i.e., pretty bad – chance of being accepted. Second, in some cases one gets a strong sense of something unique and valuable in a student, and it may be helpful to tell him or her not to sell him- or herself short, and that the chances are good enough to justify applying.</p>
<p>first of all, i think most chances threads are pretty much a waste of time - designed to make the poster feel better or worse than they already do . as you note, anyone can look up average stats for themselves – beyond that no one on a message board can tell you whether your overall application is likely to be one that strikes the admissions committee as worthy of acceptance.</p>
<p>the above data breaks down how many applicants applied with a given stat, and how many of those were accepted. these examples should show you that having average stats at competitive schools alone isn’t enough to get you admitted given the large number of applicants with those stats who get rejected.</p>
<p>I think alot of the kids exhibit negativism in the chances thread. It’s almost at times feels like a “blood sport.” Years ago when my first was looking for colleges I used to glance at the “Chances” thread now I try to avoid them unless I accidentally stumble on kids giving totally incorrect info to someone about a colleges in my state that I know quite abit about, sometimes I’ll jump in…usually the kids jump all over me then so take it for what it’s worth…not much…in my opinion. If you are sincerely interested in a school…apply…you have really nothing to loose and everything to gain if it’s a reachy school for you. My second son has a school that his “chances” are pretty slim. But he’ll still apply, he’d be pleased as punch to get accepted, but he won’t despair if he doesn’t. He “gets” how it works. If you are in the middle of heap according to all the real data reports (not anecdotal reports) you can find then you are in the middle of the heap - why would you “not” apply? That said, if the cost of applications is a major concern or your parents are dead set against you applying then make a decision whether or not it’s worth it to you to “try” for a spot.</p>
<p>Agree with JHS. I’d also note that I know kids who are rejected from top schools who have stats and accomplishments out the wazoo – and kids who are just BWRK (bright well rounded kids) who get into them, which confirms for me that once the quantitative hurdle has been met (that is, the kid can handle the work academically) it’s really all in the qualitative measures – is this kid interesting, unique, someone who will provide a diverse point of view to our campus. And that may or may not be “I won Intel and volunteered the mostest hours to saving the rainforest.” It may even be something smaller in scope.</p>
<p>I agree, for selective universities they are pretty pointless, but for big state schools, like one of the CSUs, it’s fairly easy to tell who get’s in. Everything’s numbers.</p>
<p>If you go back to threads from last spring where students were posting their stats and whether they did or didn’t get accepted to a given Ivy, you’ll notice (a) accepted students who were clearly fabulous, (b) rejected students who clearly didn’t have the stats to be considered, and (c) everybody else. In category (c) you find kids with nearly identical stats and some were accepted and some were not. </p>
<p>If every rejection letter came with a memo detailing precisely why the student was not chosen, we’d all have a better idea of who has a chance; until then, it’s guesswork for many of the applicants. (So no reason to concede defeat!)</p>
<p>The WAMC threads are like CC version of the daily horoscope. Nobody believes it, but many people read it! </p>
<p>While those threads offer some entertainment value (the only value,) the more insidious part of “chancing” someone does not come from the often irrational advice, but comes from the number of people who PRETEND to know what happens inside the admission offices. The worst offenders are parents who claim to “know” someone or pretend that interviewing for their alma mater gives them access to the inner sanctum where decisions are made. An entirely misleading position by frustrated adcoms who rely on their old copy of “The Gatekeepers” … just like everyone else! </p>
<p>Except for the REAL admissions officers who read the ENTIRE file of an applicant, there is nobody who can do more than speculating, and wildly to boot!</p>
<p>I agree that the ‘chances’ responses are generally useless outside of the obvious outliers. What’s funny is that many of the responses are coming from HS kids who aren’t even in college and haven’t a clue anyway. Some of these same posters will post ‘what are my chances’ about themselves on one thread and turn around and respond to a different ‘what are my chances’ thread for someone else as if they’re an expert.</p>
<p>If people want an idea of chances then they should analyze the actual statistics of average SAT/GPA for the college (realizing there are some below who are accepted as well above who are rejected), the stats of who was accepted where from a particular HS given their GPA, etc. They need to realize that the very most selective colleges aren’t a given for anyone. They also need to realize that ‘past performance doesn’t always apply to the current cycle’ - i.e. some of the colleges are getting tougher and tougher to get into every year.</p>
<p>Well, it’s good in that they TEND to prepare you for the worst.</p>
<p>I agree with momofthreeboys that the responses to chance posts are on the negative rather than positive side. </p>
<p>I wouldn’t say they’re worthless…they do relieve anxiety to a certain extent. And if someone is REALLY unsure of whether they’ll get in, the people posting tend to know vaguely what the college is looking for or can direct the person to stats about avg. numbers for acceptance.</p>
<p>As long as the original poster knows to take the responses with a grain of salt, and doesn’t treat the word as God, then I think it can help it some ways.</p>
<p>One D’s LAC is open about the fact that class rank, test scores and GPA together make up at most 20% of admission criteria. Even with the most complete information about a candidate, the best I can guess is 50/50 match, and my only other answer is reach.</p>
. as you note, anyone can look up average stats for themselves – beyond that no one on a message board can tell you whether your overall application is likely to be one that strikes the admissions committee as worthy of acceptance.</p>