<p>@classicrockerdad I haven’t previously read about your algorithm, and I am intrigued. How do you estimate the probability of being rejected by your more preferable schools? Do you try to estimate a sum of "non-acceptance to all the schools higher on the list or just take (1 - probability of least selective school higher on list).</p>
<p>I tried running my kid’s list thru the exercise. In brief, it made her 2 reaches which rank below a couple “matches” fall below the “reasonable limit”, while all the safeties and matches still look like reasonable efforts. It reinforces the good old guidance counselor advice of 3/3/3. This exercise also reinforced for me the importance of safeties and matches that the kid truly loves.</p>
<p>If anyone wants to try this out, here is the formula I approximated from CRD’s description</p>
<p>Likelihood of attendance = probability of admission x (1 - probability of admission at least selective school above it on list) </p>
<p>My kid applied to 11. Made sure a good chunk of those were done for EA. </p>
<p>There were a few more on the initial list that fell off due to waning interest and fatigue. Especially schools that required a lot of school specific essays. </p>
<p>We cast the net wide on match/safeties in order to see where the financial deals might be. We resisted the impulse to add more reach schools. Since for us those would be a reach for both admissions as well as finances. </p>
<p>Classic rockers dad formula only works if the schools Naviace data is solid and generalizes to your kid. For my d1, applied to 5 naviace safeties. Rejected from 3, accepted no merit at 1, full ride from 1. Accepted with merit from 5reaches. So for us, inverse was true. Since schools often use data other than naviace. It’s a crap shoot.</p>
<p>I’m starting to see that what one might think is an academic safety might not be? Is this because the school knows they are a “safety” or that the student is over-qualified? D has four safeties on her list and I guess we are counting on them to come up with the most merit aid. In all four cases, they do have an honors program which would be the only way she would accept admission but in your example momneeds2no that is really troubling. Three rejections, and one full ride…this is what I’ve been saying all along…its nothing but a crapshoot unless you have the money to pay OOP.</p>
<p>My older son had the stats to apply to schools with single digit admissions rates, there weren’t really any match schools that offered more than his safeties. Since we weren’t chasing merit money (which in any event both safety schools offered as well as having somewhat lower tuition than the other schools) he didn’t need a long list. Personally, I think an strategy for kids without serious money issues is find a couple of safeties you like, apply EA or rolling admissions wherever possible, pare down the list if you get in early anywhere you like better than other schools you are considering, and finally have two safeties so if worst comes to worst you’ll have choices in April.</p>
<p>S1 applied to 14: 10 reaches, 2 matches, 2 safeties: went to one of two safeties
S2 applied to 8 : EA admitted, then reduced his list to 7 more to address whether he wanted $$$ monies/ivies to rule the decision; admitted to 3. Ended at EA school.
D1 applied ED but also sent in 4 safeties at the same time; have an ED2 school if ED1 does not work, and a few match other schools and one other reach in the mix…</p>
<p>It is different for each kid, depends on major and EC interests (which do change) and location. </p>
<p>@NEPatsGirl - There are some safeties who definitely want to feel your kid’s love. Two schools on my D’s list are that way. They are also among her top four choices. And since her other two top schools are financial reaches these two safeties aren’t really safeties at all - they’re actually her top picks, one of which she will most likely attend. D has been good about making sure both these schools know she’s serious about attending. Both have so much to offer her it will be a tough choice if they both come through with big bucks. </p>
<p>One of the schools requires a separate application for their full ride scholarship - it’s not due until the middle of January. I suspect they do that intentionally so kids who have been accepted early action to their first choices won’t apply for the full scholarship. </p>
<p>My D ended up applying to 11: 2 reaches and 2 safeties (and one of each of those in the extreme). We are chasing merit money so the strategic focus was on the 7 in the middle, mostly private LAC’s, where she would likely be within, say, top 15% of applicants on standardized scores and they gave out merit aid to at least 15% of incoming students.</p>
<p>We thought we would do 6-8 going in. We probably could have trimmed few schools, but a several were added on either or both of two factors: (1) being within a day’s drive; and (ii) mailings/notices they were waiving application fees.</p>
<p>About 5 waived application fees, so we stayed within our projected budget for applying. Only 2 were rolling admissions; we have 4 RD and the rest EA. </p>
<p>We have visited 7 of the 11 on the list. Only one would be difficult travel choice, and 3/4 are driving distance, with the rest easy flights.</p>
<p>If feels about right; the goal was to generate at least a few (3/4?) of what we termed “feasible and warranted” options for child to choose from, knowing we would be chasing merit money from anything but safeties.</p>
<p>With ease of common app, and some waived fees, the marginal cost of adding a few extra apps for those chasing merit money seems to be fairly low.</p>
<p>S1 will apply to 13. The issue is that financial aid policies are so opaque that we want to apply to the school that will give him the best education in Computer Science plus great general experience and be affordable. I don’t trust net price calculators. I want to see the final offer after acceptance and pleading the case.</p>
<p>I wonder how many acceptances vs. rejections did the people mentioned in the newspaper get… must have been an excruciating May 1st for these people</p>
<p>“Too many apps shows a lack of research and careful planning IMO.”</p>
<p>Or conversely, an excess of research and planning? Seldom will you find a student applying to a large number of schools that hasn’t done extensive research and planning. It takes an awful lot of motivation to apply to 15, 20, 25 schools.</p>
<p>There is no one size fits all magic formula for applications, and I am not sure why so many posters keep trying to get everyone else to adopt one? I understand that a lot of people are just sharing their own experiences and results and trying to be helpful, but others are down right snarky towards kids that exceed their concept of an upper limit.</p>
<p>Patertrium- this isn’t like buying a used car where there’s a protracted negotiation. I’m not sure what case you are pleading. In most instances, unless there was an actual error in the paperwork, college’s will send you their “best and final offer”. Colleges which will entertain some discussion around the offer, usually only care about “peer institutions”, i.e. CMU isn’t upping their offer because your local vo-tech college offered a free ride. Don’t get caught up in thinking that if you get 13 acceptances you can play your favorite school off the other 12. you are free to accept the best offer you get of course- but there are very few financial aid professionals who are going to get into a “case pleading” exercise. If they made a mistake- for sure. If they didn’t consider a special circumstance (child with medical needs, support of an elderly parent) then they are likely to do another review.</p>
<p>Or the poor kid who applies to a handful and then some of reaches…and ends up at the safety which happens. Honestly I wouldn’t let my kids apply to all that many reaches simply because the odds of it being money down the drain are pretty high and it can be $100 a reach by the time you pay the app fee, the send the test score fee, the profile fee if it’s a profile school. I’m just not one to part with a $100 a piece on a bunch of crap shoots, but then I’ve never been to a casino and really have no interest.</p>
<p>My son applied to 10 schools (4 reaches, 4 matches, and 2 safeties). They varied by location, cost, and majors. He did individual applications for each (except the 2 SUNYs because they don’t have individual apps) and got accepted to all 10. He decided to take a gap year so he could figure out what he wants to major in before he borrows any money. The young man on my couch today is much more mature and decisive than the one who sat there even half a year ago, so a gap year was a good choice for him. He’s decided on a major and is exploring schools in a more focused way than last fall, so I expect his next round of applications to be fewer than his first round. </p>
<p>I think people like to know how many apps other families submitted so they can see if they’re on the right track. Unless they’re not applying to enough schools (they don’t have a safety, for instance), I don’t understand why the number of schools a student applies to would matter to anyone else. </p>
<p>I think how many apps is enough depends on the particular student. I don’t think there’s a number that’s appropriate for all. My D knew she wanted a state flagship. She applied to our state flagship and 4 others OOS - 3 safeties and 2 matches (I’m talking academic safeties; finances weren’t an issue). She got into all and chose one of the OOS safeties. In retrospect, 4 schools would have been sufficient, as one of her safeties was a clear last choice. Her best friend, on the other hand, applied to 15 schools, and that was probably the right amount for her as she was heavy on the reach schools.</p>
<p>It makes sense to readjust as “verdicts” come in. My son dropped several schools once he was accepted to one of his highly-ranked reach EA schools. My daughter also dropped a couple of schools (application burnout?) and later regretted it. If $$$ are an issue, and many of the schools are RD where you won’t hear until late March, it’s hard not to throw a few more into the mix “just in case.” I found with both kids that what they wanted (or thought they wanted) changed as the year (September - April) dragged on. Once you get accepted at one school where a) you’d be happy and b) is affordable it’s a HUGE relief. </p>
<p>It’s a whole other world for kids applying to BFA conservatories – the top programs accept under 5% of applicants and the audition plays the major role of if the kids is accepted, so these kids need to apply to many schools. Juilliard accepts 8 to 10 students to its BFA program – over 800 audition. Carnegie Mellon accepts 24 students, about 1200 audition…it’s a crap shoot even for the truly talented.</p>
<p>Don’t have a number, but for a high stats kid we’re thinking about only reaches and two solid-lock safeties–if he is rejected or deferred by his ED application. The reaches are top national lacs and unis for which he is a statistical match, but which have very low acceptance rates. The two safeties are the flagship state U and a state lac. Both of these schools are first tier but not at the tippy top. He is guaranteed a tuition scholarship, the honors program, and possibly a stipend at the state u, and the lac is a need/blind-full/need school for which we can afford the EFC. </p>
<p>Our thinking is that he can get an excellent education at either of the two safeties. Is it worth loads more cash to go to a school marginally better–if he doesn’t get into a top ten or fifteen school?</p>
<p>Can hardly wait to breath that sigh of relief lol. I can definately see D’s RD list changing/decreasing once the EA results come in. Of the 6 early apps, I think she would be as happy at 2 of them as she would her match schools with a third being fine as well but a little farther down the list. But she would not be as happy as she would at one of her reach schools, which honestly I don’t think are going to come through but…wth, she’s worked hard so I agreed to pony up the $220 for fees. The other 3 are truly safeties, there in case she doesn’t get in anywhere else that is affordable and she’ll have to buck up ~ one is far too big (instate flagship), one too far away (7 hours drive) and one in the middle of the city which doesn’t thrill her. But she will get a good education at any one of them or they wouldn’t be on the list.</p>