<p>S1 – 10 schools on list: 2 EA acceptances (one with merit), 1 RD w/full merit ride, 1 RD, 1 waitlist, 2 rejections. Did not apply ED anywhere, and did not complete three other apps after getting into two of his top choices EA. Based on current trends, six of the seven were reaches for anyone. At the time (HS class 2008), it was four reaches, two targets (but reachy) and one likely.</p>
<p>S2 – Had 11 schools on his list. No ED applications. Accepted to 1 EA, 3 RD (two with merit), waitlisted at 2, rejected at 2. Did not complete two other apps after getting an EA acceptance at one of his top choices. Was also on the reachy side of things, though a couple of the schools were less so at the time he applied (HS class of 2010). He was applying to LACs, midsized selective universities and the flagship (no Ivy).</p>
<p>What worked for both of them was to tailor their apps to the “target” schools that were a bit of a reach, but who would notice and appreciate the effort. It worked. Both wound up with exactly the choices they wanted.</p>
<p>If one needs to compare financial aid packages, it makes sense to apply to a few more schools. Now I looked back a year after, my D could have skipped half of the schools on the list and apply to only 3-4. If one have enough time to study the school profiles, one can really shorten the list easily.</p>
<p>Hindsight makes it easy to cut, but when one is in the process, it’s much harder to know what is realistic with a high scoring kid. The odds aren’t good, but the possible pay off is high. My DD applied to 10. In hindsight she didn’t need the three safeties/low matches, but this is because she got lucky $$$ with one reach and lucky $ with 2 other reaches.</p>
<p>The NPC’s don’t work well for divorced or unmarried parents, which is a large proportion of today’s people. Nor can it tell a lot about merit aid, in many cases. If you see a merit award range “from 5k to 20k” for stat ranges above a certain minimum, say 32ACT, you still don’t know if your scores will even lead to that minimum award, or a bonanza, or a blowout because the program ran out of $</p>
<p>When comparing financial aid packages, it is more than looking for an affordable school, but a more affordable school. You will get an estimation from NPC, but you would not know the exact figure. So it is still likely needed to apply to a few schools if budget is a critical factor.</p>
<p>I must’ve run the NPC on a hundred schools. I never saw a “5k-20k” swing. Many don’t represent merit, but if you investigate? you can get a good idea. I estimated S’s merit awards to all 6 schools he applied to. And of the 2 we received so far? I was spot on.</p>
<p>@giterdone 1 is enough only if you’re sure you will get into a college that is already at a price you’re happy to pay. </p>
<p>When I fill out the NPC’s, every single one tells us we can afford the full magilla. Except we can’t. Not without loans. We want to keep costs under 30k and would be thrilled if we could keep them under 20k. So - We’ve got two great flagships in our state that fit our budget. Our D has already received a full scholarship at Pitt, but we won’t hear until February or March if Penn State is going to give her money. D prefers PSU, but does she prefer it 16k? We don’t know yet, and we also don’t know if a more appealing private school will want her enough to bring the cost under 30k. (In addition to the two state schools our D applied to six privates). </p>
<p>There’s a lot to be weighed here and a final decision will not be made until all offers are on the table. The less we have to pay, the more freedom D will have during summers, study abroad, etc. Each college to which D is applying has wonderful things to offer but all of it needs to be weighed by her in light of the final price. </p>
<p>I do wish the college pricing scheme were more transparent, but I suppose that some muddiness is unavoidable. For instance, a kid may look great on paper but during an interview a private college may find it doesn’t really want the kid and so will hang onto its money rather than awarding huge merit. </p>
<p>Unpredictable=lottery. College Confidential has shown me that kids can get shut out of safeties and get money from reaches. I suppose if you are an instate student at U ALABAMA with a 35 you can know your exact figure. …at other schools not so much</p>
<p>One of the schools to which my D is applying and shed live to attend is a real long shot for any merit money. They only give out a dozen or so scholarships. She’d love one but we’re certainly not putting all our eggs in that basket. Two of the schools D would really like to go to will most likely give her at least 20k in merit. 20k off list price puts them right at the tippy top of our price range. Those same two schools offer competitive full scholarships at which she’s probably got decent chances but are by no means guaranteed. I would put those discounts in the 20k to 42k range. That’s quite a range. </p>
<p>I really feel like eight was a good number of schools for us given our situation and our D’s personality. I could easily see other kids in the same situation applying to three or four schools or more than a dozen. There’s no one size fits all. </p>
<p>Any school without a guaranteed admission policy eg state school for instate technically is not a safety, it’s true. All the more reason to cast a wide net</p>
<p>If NPCs could deliver a reliable number for divorced parents, D would have eliminated 1/3-1/2 of the schools on her list.</p>
<p>Considering something like half(?) of kids have divorced parents, this seems like a great place to make the next big move in NPCs. Requiring that all colleges “have one”, but that one works for only about half of its customers, leaves a lot of people out. </p>
<p>I thought safeties were ALWAYS guaranteed admission AND affordable? That’s what I was told even before discovering CC. So how are people getting rejected at safeties? D has two state colleges that guarantee admission, and one at least offers a guaranteed merit award AND guaranteed admission with a certain GPA, which she has. THOSE are her safeties, though I don’t think she will need them. Famous last words though, right?</p>
<p>D has a guaranteed admission/scholarship “safety”, but a couple of her not-guaranteed schools she considers safeties too, just because the history at her HS with those schools has been that everyone with anything like her stats gets in, and there is a lot of data. Everyone uses the term differently, I suppose, but I go with “almost guaranteed to be accepted and affordable, and would be happy to attend”. That’s what we used, anyway. </p>
<p>D’s safeties are schools where she is higher than the 75th % and do not require NCP so I was able to get an estimate of cost based on my household income. But, there is no real guarantee of admission. Its a very likely guess on my part. What I didn’t understand until recently was that some schools will not offer a place if they feel you are over-qualified. Considering each of the schools have a honors program that puts her at the 75% mark, I hope this isn’t a theme with her choices. She’d be happy at any of the schools if the merit aid is substantial AND she is offered a honors pgram spot. </p>
<p>Neither of my kids had 100% safe safeties. In fact older son’s safety was named a “New Ivy” and acceptance rate went from something like 65% to 40% that year. However both kids actually did have one safety, because they got into at least once college early. Neither was interested in attending a we-only-care-about-the-numbers big state school which is what many kids do for their safety. If worst had come to worst - there’s always the gap year. </p>