<p>How many safe schools does vary. If the local flagship state university has a simple metric that you know means you are in, and you can afford it, that might be enough, although I see it as still somewhat risky , particularly since there can be big changes before fall and spring of senior year.
I think it is crucial to have a school that you can absolutely afford - and that means factoring in some risk. If your college fund is in the market, for example, you need to consider that it could take a big hit at any time. Sure, it will probably come back, but that doesn’t matter - you have to sell when you have to sell.
There is also the hard truth that all the elite schools are hard to predict AND not at all the same. You cannot just apply to all the Ivies + MIT + Stanford and assume that since you are a top student, one of them will take you. They may all reject you. And, they are not all the same. Few students would actually fit at all of them.
Finally, students who can’t see themselves at a safety school need to rein in their egos or risk considerable unhappiness.</p>