<p>I wouldn't look at acceptance rates when judging my chances of acceptance.</p>
<p>As we all know more kids are applying to the high profile prep schools than ever (just like HYP), so the reject numbers can very well be fluff.</p>
<p>And even with a good chance of acceptance (given where your grades and test scores measure up against the averages), if you are FA dependent many schools will accept you and only offer an unrealistically low FA number (trying to see how many quality kids they can get without spending as much FA money - hey they have to spend it carefully). They admit more than they can actually take in with this method, knowing that only a small fraction will accept (putting themselves in hock up to their necks). Many universities will do the same thing.</p>
<p>So the acceptance rate (even for a certain GPA/test score) is still not the best indicator of certainty of being able to attend.</p>
<p>I say that looking at where your GPA/test score/etc match up against the current student population, could yield a good formula for your likelyhood of getting accepted with a good FA packages.</p>
<p>Let me throw out this formula for discussion:</p>
<p>100% minus (Percentile of ranking compared to current students stats) equals (%chance of getting denied or admitted with inadequate FA)</p>
<p>If you would be in the 90% percentile of the students who have been admitted and actually attended a school in recent years past, your chances of a denial or admittance with inadequate FA would be 10%.</p>
<p>Taking this to many top tier BSs - being in the top 10% of their class admissions is like having almost straight A's, being in the high 90 percentiles on SSATs and having execellent references/extra curics. Not an easy task, but there are no guarantees in life.</p>
<p>If you are a full-paying student, you can probably halve your chance of denial in this formula.</p>
<p>Just a reminder, this formula is what seems to make sense to this poster and is in no way official. It is intended as food for thought and discussion. Please don't read anything personal into it.</p>