How much do YOU think YOU need to retire? ...and at what age will you (and spouse) retire? (Part 1)

<p>

I remember looking at Bogleheads for direction on this years ago and the spreadsheet I made was along a similar basis, but my numbers were a bit different, eg. I had put my marginal tax rate at retirement at 25% - perhaps I should have estimated based on the overall tax rate for everything rather than marginal. I also used the actual annual taxes I had paid on my Vanguard index funds/ETFs and they were a bit lower than yours. I also factored in a 15% capital gain tax for the second figure, but it still came out ahead, so I stopped doing IRAs. Maybe I should revisit with today’s numbers and see if the Bogleheads have anything to add

Thanks for your help</p>

<p>Sorry., you need to use the tax rate of the gains
</p>

<p>Listen to notrichenough. :)</p>

<p>Index ETFs are pretty tax-efficient, right? So 12% per year in taxes is probably high, as long as you never trade them.</p>

<p>It’s a lot easier to resist spending it when it’s in an IRA, though, I would think. For some people that might be more important than making a little higher return.</p>

<p>You might be in the 25% bracket for all of your IRAs. I’m hoping I am. :D</p>

<p>Although Fidelity days that 35% of 401Ks are cashed out rather than rolled over when purple leave a company. So maybe avoiding temptation is a moot point.</p>

<p>What kind of tax rate are you guys paying on the vanguard s&p 500 fund?</p>

<p>Does anybody own spy instead?</p>

<p>For those in private industry that had a pension and your company ended it. Do you think your company would have kept the pension if they could have reduced their cost by 60-65% or do you think they would have still ended the pension plan and moved to a 401K?</p>

<p>tom - I think my big company wanted out of the pension business, so they didn’t need so much money in pension funds. Now each employee gets to sweat the unpredictability of life expectancy, interest rates etc. </p>

<p>I think they still would have switched, because it eliminates any future liability.</p>

<p>Plus, many companies do not provide any match at all. So their expense is basically zero.</p>

<p>100% reduction in cost beats a 60% reduction</p>

<p>With some of the miserable 401k plans out there, I wonder if the HR departments are not getting compensated (directly or indirectly) for their choice of plan admin. It is a bad sign when the most charitable conclusion is that a choice was based on stupidity. To me, the only other reason for front loaded funds and index funds, index funds!, with expense ratios of 1% or more is outright malfeasance. </p>

<p>So notrichenough, where are we in dadof3’s question? </p>

<p>There are scenarios where 25 percent tax rates beat 15 percent tax rates. Maybe not his scenario. </p>

<p>I hope that is where we are. :)</p>

<p>@dstark, I don’t know what taxes we would pay for Vanguard S&P 500, but it looks like the annualized return pre-tax is roughly 0.4% - 0.5% higher than the return net of taxes on distributions. I don’t use spy, and mostly prefer Total Stock Market for it’s wider diversification in equities. </p>

<p>IxnayBob, do you get a better return with the total stock market index? A little more volatile? </p>

<p>I have only owned one fund as an investment and it is a muni fund
</p>

<p>So
your basis changes automatically when the taxes are taken out? You never have to do anything? </p>

<p>The fund takes care of the taxes? The taxes are paid at the fund’s rate? </p>

<p>Getting back to generalities and the original question, can we net things out to a single forumula? I’ll need help refining it so that others understand it too. </p>

<p>A = Annual income need (maybe current income, probably less since no longer doing 401K, college spending, etc) </p>

<pre><code> Savings needed = (A - SS - pension) / .04
</code></pre>

<p>Note - 4% is a rule of thumb often used . Perhaps a better figure would be (.03 + inflation rate) </p>

<p>@dstark, It is really just a philosophical view that I want to “own the market,” rather than an expectation of higher return. But, since owning more than the 500 largest publicly traded companies will naturally add in companies with a smaller capitalization, and since low cap stocks have done well, Total Stock has done nicely. I also own proportional amounts of Total International Stock, Total Bond, and Total International Bond funds. </p>

<p>Basis will change if you reinvest dividends; since I use Quicken it’s not a problem, and even without Quicken I think all brokerages track basis. Fwiw, since I don’t like to sell shares to rebalance in taxable accounts, I don’t reinvest dividends automatically, but let them accumulate in a MM account until it’s time to rebalance. In tax-deferred or tax-free accounts, it doesn’t make any difference.</p>

<p>At the end of the year, the fund will send you a tax form indicating a few things: capital gains/losses (very low in an indexed fund since they don’t churn very much) that are being distributed, dividends or interest, and some other stuff that you (or your accountant) inputs into your tax software. Most of it is minimal in stock funds, I find, and pales in comparison to the taxes caused by selling funds, or the interest earned in bond funds. TaxCut or whatever software you use makes it child’s play unless you’re selling specific lots of assets (rather than FIFO or average cost), in which case Quicken comes in handy. </p>

<p>@colorado_mom‌ , computing A in your formula is the heart of the matter. I compute 3 versions of A – subsistence A, comfortable A, and first-class A. </p>

<p>For all of the spreadsheets I do, when I try to talk my wife into retiring, she always asks me, “do we have enough?” And I always look at her, shrug, and say “to do what, for how long, and with what level of guarantee that we won’t be asking the kids for help?” The old joke is that “I have enough saved up to retire as long as I don’t live past noon on Thursday.” More realistically, I try to tell my wife that as long as we don’t start flying private or buy a yacht, we are fine, but since she gets a lot of identity and satisfaction from working, I (secretly) find it reassuring that she will work a few more years. </p>

<p>My husband has been trying out semi-retirement, he said he potentially could get bored. He is only at work 3 days. I think I have to seriously think about this retirement business.
I worry about the euphoria the first year and then boredom afterwards.</p>

<p>

I am confused by this: Are these quantities (Saving needed, Annual income needed, SS, Pension) before tax or after tax?</p>

<p>I once read an article in which they convert pension and SS to some large “equivalent saving accounts” like:</p>

<p>A) the amount of saving SPension that could yield this amount of pension each month</p>

<p>B) the amount of saving SSocSecurity that could yield this amount of SS payment each month.</p>

<p>Then, they sum up these 3 numbers:

  1. Your Saving: mostly 401k and IRAs (before or after tax?)
  2. SPension
  3. SSocSecurity</p>

<p>If the sum is between 8 to 12.5 times of your final income (again, before or after tax final income here?), you will have enough.</p>

<p>But my question is: whether we calculate these using before tax values or after tax values.</p>

<p>mcat - For simplicity, I do it before tax, based on an income need A based on recent tracked expenditures
 less than today’s gross income. For DH and me, most retirement income will be taxed (much from traditional 401Ks), so that makes sense It could differ in other situations- just hoping to get the discussion back to factors for picking a family formula, less on specific investment choices. </p>

<p>Note - In our case, my method is not so different from mcat’s method
 8 to 12.5 times final income. </p>

<p>IxnayBob, ok
 Sounds good
I misunderstood something before .</p>