<p>Mcat2, there is no law against using real or more probable numbers. You don’t have to post the real numbers here. :)</p>
<p>My head spun after awhile, trying to figure things out. The easier way for us was looking at how much we were spending pre-retirement and guesstimating how expenses would change at points in the future (e.g. mortgage payments, tuition, medical expenses, travel, etc.) as well as how our income would also change in the future.</p>
<p>The calculator link didn’t work for me–I suspect I entered the information incorrectly because every financial planner we have spoken with has agreed that we should have enough to live very comfortably and leave a nice estate for our kids, if that is something we desire (which we do). So much depends on how much you currently spend and intend to spend going forward. As was posted, there are many intangibles, which is why it’s nice to have a cushion and emergency fund for “just in case.”</p>
<p>I have found calculators on bogleheads.org that seem to be better at projecting and providing guidance about appropriate withdrawal rates.</p>
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<p>Www.firecalc.com also does Monte Carlo simulations and is free. It is one of the calculators preferred at Bogleheads.org, possibly one of the ones that HImom likes. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the free version of <a href=“http://www.ESPlanner.com”>www.ESPlanner.com</a> does not include Monte Carlo, but is still IMO useful. For what it’s worth, I paid for the full tilt version, ran many scenarios, printed them out, showed them to my wife, and she still won’t retire! Bah, humbug! I am making my peace with the fact that for my DW it’s not about having sufficient funds. I hope you know the old dirty joke that ends with “it’s not really about hunting, is it now?” I can’t tell it here , but it’s how I feel :)</p>
<p>dstark, I always see youngish people in the ALFs. </p>
<p>Bookworm, thanks.</p>
<p>AFAIK FireCalc doesn’t do monte carlo simulations. Instead, they take the market performance of every year starting in the 1870s and going forward, and replay what actually happened from that point forward against your scenario, as if you retired in that year. </p>
<p>You wind up with a chart with 100+ lines on it showing how much money you have left if you had retired each year starting whenever, and lived through those markets. If you never run out even against the worst markets, you are most likely to be ok.</p>
<p>FireCalc is cool because it has a ton of knobs and buttons to tweak. You can construct very detailed models of your retirement. You can waste a whole day there. :)</p>
<p>A problem that I have with the calculators is that they seem to want retirements to be further off than I want. I plan to retire Dec 31st, but i could decide not to also. However, the calculators won’t let me put in my current age. it’s annoying. </p>
<p>Like IxnayBob and his dw, I’m finally realizing that it’s not about sufficient funds for my dh, either. I thought that was the issue, magnified by his concern for funding a special needs trust, but he has admitted that he’d rather continue working for as long as he can. We’ve both developed medical issues that make travel less appealing than it was years ago. He has few hobbies and none that he’d rather spend more time on than work. If not for his latest boss being such a jerk, he’d be happy to remain in his current position until he’s 70. I’ve been promised a decision in the first quarter, as soon as his bonus and deferred comp is paid, after living in limbo for too long. </p>
<p>Hayden, you can just pretend you’re retiring next year. That is what I tend to settle for–it should be pretty close to retiring this year. It’s important to not let these calculators and calculations drive you nuts!</p>
<p>This thread should had been opened 20 years ago.</p>
<p>dstark, Thank.</p>
<p>In my hypothetical example, I pretend I am retiring next year too.</p>
<p>The numbers I got from the calculator shows that, before I have the SS income, my saving will be depleted (i.e., my current year net need) at a rate of between 56,190 a year. </p>
<p>I arbitrarily assume that my investment return is set to as low as 0.5%, in order to see/understand the results more clearly.</p>
<p>After I am eligible to have the SS income, the depletion rate will drop significantly, 16,473. This is not surprising of course. But it is still quite astonishing to see such a big difference.</p>
<p>I should join AARP as soon as I am qualified and try to “protect” the SS income as much as I could (at the expense of the young generation!)</p>
<p>2015 61 683,400 0 3,417 60,000 12,000 48,000 56,471 56,190 630,346</p>
<p>2018 64 523,442 0 2,617 60,000 45,716 14,284 16,805 16,473 509,254</p>
<p>Mcat2,</p>
<p>I agree with you. </p>
<p>I don’t think people understand how important SS is to 90 to 98 percent of the population. </p>
<p>Run a calculator with SS and then run the same numbers without SS.</p>
<p>The firecalc limited how many attempts I could play with. I disabled the cookies so I can play more.</p>
<p>Some of these historical numbers are very unlikely to occur. We can also adjust our portfolios. Bonds with specific maturity dates can eventually be rolled over so if you use ladders you have some protection with higher rates. </p>
<p>You are going to be steered to equities with this calculator because stocks have performed the best for over a century. Maybe that is a good thing. </p>
<p>I find the other calculator much easier to use. I keep things simple though. It is all one page.</p>
<p>The firecalc does not include taxes.</p>
<p>
In many careers, the odds is against you to be able to work until you are 70.</p>
<p>I once looked at the age profile of the employees at a hi tech company (whose HQ is not in US.) The percentage of 60+ aged employees is less than 0.5%.</p>
<p>This is the reason why I do not have much faith in the results of retirement calculator which, when you are 40 yo, assumes that you can work till at least you are 65 yo or even 70 yo. This is not practical for most people in some career path. I would rather use the financial calculator in such a way that, at the age of 60 (or even 56), how you will fare if you have X in your retirement account and other assets.</p>
<p>H was fortunate that he could work with his employer until he retired at >70.5. Even many of the experienced nurses in our state are being laid off so they can hire younger, less expensive nurses. 
Agree that many folks do not have the option as to how long they will keep their job – many are forced out via various means sooner than they expect and have to decide whether to retire reluctantly or re-invent themselves or find a new employer.</p>
<p>Mcat2, you can do that. The calculator doesn’t know how old you are. 
You can play with different inputs. </p>
<p>I can pretend I am 63 if I want. I am 58 so I don’t want to rush it. :)</p>
<p>I was joking with shawbridge. He is right. If possible, we should have a cushion when we retire. Things happen. </p>
<p>You can build a cushion by working longer like he is doing. Or you can spend less… Which is what I am doing. We aren’t unique regarding retirement. :)</p>
<p>We had a story in the paper where a stewardess had 52 years with United… she is in her 70s. But she still loves her job, so she turned down an incentive package ($100K, I think). Wow. </p>
<p>We’re so starved for tech people where I work that I could work until I drop which I have no intentions of doing. There are way too many other rewarding things in life to do besides working.</p>
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<p>The kids’ pediatrician recently passed away. He was in his 80s. I asked him a few years earlier if he was thinking of retiring, and he replied “Quit the best job in the world? Not until I have to.”</p>
<p>One of the write ups in the paper started with this anecdote
</p>
<p>The number of people who shed a tear when he died was staggering. For some people, retiring isn’t something they look forward to. </p>
<p>I fly a ton and I see lots of flight attendants who no longer like it and are just holding on until retirement. I’ve often thought this should be a job for people for 3-5 years where they get a chance to travel and then move on to other things but occasionally I run into folks like the flight attendant in question who are clearly enjoying themselves. I do worry with some of the older women working as flight attendants on domestic carriers as to whether they are really up to the physical actions that could be required in an emergency. On Asian carriers, they tend to force retirement at age 30 but even on European ones, the flight attendants tend to be younger and fitter.</p>
<p>M y hope is that older stewardesses that lack may physical stamina compensate with wisdom and experience… and stress-immuninty. </p>