I’m around 30-35% cash and wondering if I should increase it. But historically I am terrible at timing the market.
I got into bitcoin last year just before Thanksgiving, I think at around $8900, and watched it go up to $20,000. Now I am down 70%!!! I may have to go back to work! My $100 “investment” is worth… $40?
@NJres
oh dear!
my condolences!
@NJres - holy JPMorgan! I finally “know” someone who admitted losing money on bitcoin. 
70% down… that sucks. Not as bad though as one stock Mr. bought on his IRA. It went to $0. It was some sort of a semiconductor co that bit the dust.
We went to 100% cash ,from being very aggressive in Tech stocks, in mid Aug.There were too many warning signs on the horizon to ignore- the probable end of an incredible bull market [ all good things must end sometimes], rising interest rates, a worry some debt bubble in corporate debt, the Deficit busting stimulus package past by Congress that reduced taxes on wealthy US citizens and overseas profits on US companies, which has not added any net $$ to the US economy overall, [ surprise?] but has only enriched the C suite exec’s and shareholders of US companies that can now bring profits home at much lower tax rates, the tariff wars -which will get worse with China in the next year or so as there is no way they will bow to Trumps demands, though he is right about China’s attempts to steal US companies intellectual property.
But bombast will not get a the leaders of an over 2000 year old nation of 1.4 BILLION people, with a rapidly rising and expanding middle class, to change their ways quickly.
So, we are hunkering down and planning on investing solely in CD’s for the next few years. Anyone who thought that equity markets would have a good year in 2018 after the incredible returns in 2017, was dreaming, imho.
For us personally , based on numerous FA calculations, all we will need over the next 30 years is a 2% return on our IRA’s, and we will be fine.
I hope others will be careful with their investments going forward.
@menloparkmom We are about the same as you, though not quite 100 percent. My husband has felt the same way you do for several years. He’d rather be sitting safe than chasing the market down.
Even though the market is high based on numbers alone, the return is kind of flat and not in keeping with the risk at this point (for us). It is due for a correction.
I think a lot depends on one’s investing philosophy, risk tolerance, and circumstances.
I’m a buy and hold investor. I rarely market time. If I’m sitting on some cash I might invest in downdrafts but it isn’t a core part of my investing strategy. I’m still heavy in equities, I’m still overweighted in tech stocks but overall my portfolio is diverse. Yes, I’m negative on the year. Yes, I’ve lost some money on tech stocks. However, that is hugely offset with the performance I’ve had over time. My tech stocks are still up 250-700% since I bought them around 7 years ago. I can withstand a correction. Not saying it won’t smart a little but I’ve got enough cash set aside to ride it out. I don’t think most investors do a good job of market timing over time. You win some years, you lose in a couple but with time those who stay the course are still winners.
Our tax advantaged accounts, other than Roths, have been bonds and similar for some time (risk-off). Yesterday, I bought TIPS again (it’s been a while). Our taxable account is still predominantly equities (risk-on).
If push comes to shove, our risk-off funds will suffice. Our risk-on funds will probably be inherited by family and charity.
For those of you who have dumped equities and converted to cash - what has been your strategy for doing this with regard to capital gains taxes? Or do you just not worry about that aspect? I feel I am weighted too heavily in equities, but getting out of them is going to have tax consequences for me. How do you assess the cost of paying those v the risk of holding?
@Hoggirl , a lot depends on your tax bracket. We recently had to raise cash to buy a house, long story but the mortgage company was a royal PITA. Since we do tax lot accounting, I was able to minimize the tax consequences, but it will still be pricy.
OTOH, as problems go, it’s a good one.
@IxnayBob - ha ha! Yes, it is.
Definitely not doing anything this calendar year. For a variety of reasons this will be our highest income year ever (by a LOT). Dramatic shift downward for next year as my dh has retired. We will definitely be in a lower bracket next year and will no longer be itemizing our deductions either. Probably need a planned shift over three - four years. But, then again, who knows what will happen with tax rates during that time period??
Have a call with our money guy next week.
Going back to COBRA…is anyone eligible to retain it months 18-36 or must you have a qualifying event? We received a notice from dh’s former employer’s benefits manager that we could keep it but I’m skeptical and want him to call. Medicare is too far away so not relevant for this time period. Would love to stay away from needing to find our own plan for as long as possible.
@collage1 — Loss of employment, even if your H elected to leave his job, is a qualifying event under COBRA. How long ago did he leave the job? If your H lost his job, anyone who had been covered by his coverage is eligible to continue on COBRA for up to 18 months. Children who exceed the limiting age of the plan may continue for 36 months, as can divorced or widowed spouses.
COBRA participants have to pay both the employer and employee share of the premium plus a 2% administrative fee.
We’re in the initial 18 month period now. We received a notice that we can stay on it for another 18 months (months 19-36) and I am skeptical so dh will need to call to clarify. Due to the conversation a few pages back, although it related to Medicare, I was prompted me to ask the question although our situation has no Medicare involvement.
@collage1 --Sorry, I do not know enough to answer your question. I would be surprised that you could remain on for the additional 18 months w/o another qualifying event (Medicare eligibility, death, divorce, or exceeding the limiting age of the plan). If you learn anything, will you circle back to let us know?
@Hoggirl
all of our taxable equities assets are in non Roth IRA’s, so there are no near term capital gains tax consequences.
We are holding onto stocks in our taxable accounts, and Mr. trades stocks (very infrequently) in tax-free and tax-deferred accounts, so no CG tax. If I ever have to fill out another Sch D in the near future, someone will be sent to the doghouse. B-)
Market up 617 points today. I have very little in cash anymore, most of our retirement funds are aggressively invested.
I’ve realized that it bothers me more to miss out when the markets go up than to take a loss when the market goes down. Theoretically planning on not withdrawing until RMDs are required anyways, in 15 years.
Wow, BD, you are almost a Millennial. 
^Too funny. Actually, after my last doctors appointment, it sounds like my health matches the age of a Millenial. Sadly, however, the outside doesn’t match the inside. 