@AnthonyZ If your GC has specific insights about how an individual college actually behaves with respect to students applying from your school, then I think you have to give that some weight. If GCs were allowed to write a book on how the colleges actually behave, it would be a best seller. For example, at my D’s high school, the GC knew right away that my D would never be admitted to either Williams or UVa because of the past pattern of decision making behavior by both of those schools with respect to students like her.
Also, if you can discern athlete-seeking behavior in the Naviance data at your high school, then you need to take that into account when assessing what the actual odds are for admission. “Naviance-adjusted” admission odds calculations based on what the prior history has actually been for similar students is very revealing. The playing field isn’t what it appears to be based on the published statistics in the guidebooks.