<p>All through high school I just assumed I would apply early decision somewhere since it helps my chances and I knew I'd be taking a risk. The problem now is that I don't know how much of a risk to take. A huge jump (10% chances) for my number one school? Or a 50/50 chance at my number two school? The problem is that if I don't apply early to the number two school, my chances decrease to almost nothing, because so many students from my school apply there early and the legacy I have there no longer is a major factor for regular decision. </p>
<p>At how low chances would you give up your number one school for your number two?
Essentially, its a matter of regretting a decision to apply, when you could have been happy elsewhere, or regretting a decision to not apply, when you could have had your dream. Which is worse?</p>
<p>I think you’re overestimating the benefit of ED. I think a bigger concern is finding a number three and number four school that you like and can afford, not pinning everything on this. You’ll have plenty of good and bad decisions in the next 60 years, and you’ve got to start some time! :)</p>
<p>ED should only be used for your clear first choice school, which must be affordable.</p>
<p>Your most important application is your safety school, unless you are admitted early with sufficient financial aid somewhere you like, in which case that school becomes your safety.</p>
<p>Most guidance counsellors would advise you to use the ED to maximize your chances somewhere. From your past posts I assume you’re talking about Brown (#1) and Penn (#2). Essentially if with a legacy status you dont apply ED to Penn, you won’t get in RD. Its not a matter of who else from your school applies there, its a matter of they wont accept you if you didnt love them enough the first time around. So that college becomes not an option for you at all, if you apply to Brown ED and not get in. How much will you regret not “following your dreams” of Brown, vs how much have you built up Brown in your own imagination? ( I say that b/c in your chances post you make statements about Brown that are actually reverse of commonly held wisdom - i.e. its actually Penn that has more stringent requirements, is more popular/has more people applying = harder to get into. Also, the Brown/Risd program is a separate application I believe and something that is harder to get).
Brown is an Ivy and just as at any Ivy admission here is a lottery. Your other tippy top choice of Amherst is another lottery. Potentially if you don’t apply to Penn ED you are looking at the second tier of your choices. So the risk for you is pie in the sky vs. a pretty sure thing.</p>