<p>I figure that if your scores are above the 75% mark, and the school accepts more than 40% of its applicants, it’s a safety. (That is, you are nearly certain to be accepted.) </p>
<p>If you’re above the 50% and the school admits 40% or more, it’s a match. With a good application, essays, EC’s, recs, you’re likely to get in.</p>
<p>Otherwise, it’s a reach-- definitely worth applying if you see yourself there, if there are programs you’d love to be a part of, etc. And you might well get in. But there’s no guarantee and you want to be sure you have other possibilities.</p>