how will my GPA affect my chances?

<p>I'm looking to apply to a PhD program (in history) in the fall, and I was wondering what my chances were at the "top" universities. (my top three choices are Harvard, Princeton and Johns Hopkins)</p>

<p>I think I have a fairly strong application, w/ good GRE scores (800 verbal, 760 quant, 6.0 analytical) and good recommendations, but my GPA lets me down tremendously. I have a cumulative GPA of 3.1. However, this is as the sole result of my abysmal performance in my first year - I was seriously ill, and ended up failing 5 classes, and (barely) passing 2. For the three years after, I have had a GPA of 4.0 every single semester, but when combined with my first year grades, my cumulative GPA goes down to 3.1</p>

<p>How important is the cumulative GPA? Would admissions criteria place a heavier weight on my grades from the last two (or three) years, or would cumulative GPA be more important? I have a doctor's note in my file at university that explains my grades in first year - would something like that help with admissions?</p>

<p>I guess I just want to know what my chances are. Thanks for any help.</p>

<p>They'll probably look at your transcript first and say, "What the hell happened with this kid?" Once they find out that you were sick your freshman, they'll probably say, "Oh wow, this kid had a 4.0 when they weren't sick. That's pretty good."</p>

<p>One of the most important documents in your Grad school application will be your Personal Statement.Much more important than the equivalent essays in the undergrad process.Use some of it it to explain the first year grades. And good luck!</p>