I definitely don’t think apps will drop to a point less qualified applicants will have a shot at famous colleges (those are unpredictability -proof 
), but I’m thinking of colleges such as umn Morris, u Alabama, the many small town PA and OH colleges - seeing a drop in applications.
For what it’s worth, actual incidents themselves don’t really figure into discussions - but rather the American tendency to like guns (actually a school chapter in many English books abroad), memories of learning about lynching or Selma, a cousin who reminds them how he was spat on after 9/11, bad memories from the GWB period, etc.
It’s also harder to dismiss incident reports as insignificant or blown out of proportion when you did dismiss them as such after Brexit, until the local Polish grocery was vandalized and kids harassed down the street.
Right now, reassurances don’t seem to work. It’ll probably ease with time but many deadlines are soon.