re: #29: in fact, there was a big drop between 2002-2005 or so, in part due to visa issues.
Also, anti-war protests reflect a different image issue (international policy) from “my kid’s safety is compromised” (which is what I’m hearing now).
Also, people are afraid of different things - for instance, Europeans appreciate the protests as a sign of US democracy, whereas I’m not sure Chinese parents would hold the same view (or they may not care!)
You’re right that there’s a lobbying factor - I’m sure they played a major role in changing the post 9/11 ideological policy to a pragmatist one.
In the end, it’s something to monitor. As long as fears don’t come true, I don’t think there will be a drop over the long term. The issue is for current applications - full into the fears, no proof they won’t come true, “do I take the risk and let my kid apply by the Dec 1 deadline to a school that I consider potentially unsafe due to the area it’s in”?