How would you define a "match" school?

I’ve been getting together a list to apply to this fall and have tried to make sure that I have enough “match” schools so that I’ll be more likely to get good financial aid. I’ve used the Collegeapps chart to see where my stats fall and almost all of the schools on my list are in the maybe category, mostly right in the middle of that category. Should I be trying to get more schools into the “most likely” category? Am I taking a chance on applying mostly to schools that I am not guaranteed to get into? My SATs tend to be much higher than average, and grades in the average range.

Just as a background: I will have all honors and AP classes this year with a 3.47 unweighted core (I know - I was over-involved last year and my grades suffered - though I’ve never had below a B and usually those B grades are almost A’s). and somewhere around a 3.6 or 3.7 weighted core - much higher with electives added in. I took the SATs once (in June, unfortunately!) and will take them again, but so far have a 690M 640V 590W (which will improve drastically next time since I have learned about the formula they want you to follow when writing the essay!). I have been very good in the interviews that I’ve had so far - I have some unusual interests and EC that have captured the interest of the interviewers. I also think I may have a hook to make up for average grades - I play piano in nearly every musical group in school, and am paid by the school to accompany the elementary choruses. I’m not going to major in music, but I am applying for talent based scholarships, and I’ll get a fantastic recommendation from my hs music teacher.

I’m having a hard time figuring out where I fit in due to the fact that my grades are lower than my SAT scores would suggest, but I’m applying to all small LAC so they have a more holistic view anyway so hopefully they’ll take me.

What do you think?

If you don’t evaluate the chance of acceptance the concept of a “match” is useless. So, if you are nicely in the middle 50% but the overall acceptance rate is 20% and the RD acceptance rate is 17% how much of a match is that?

Speaking of hooks, can you play the organ? Holy Cross awards four year scholarships if you are chosen to play the organ at mass.

You say you want to “have enough match schools so you are more likely to get good financial aid”. If you are applying for need-based aid, your stats (as long as you are admitted) don’t have anything to do with your aid. Merit scholarships are more likely at schools where you are in the top of the applicant pool. Talent scholarships are pretty much impossible to predict.

As long as you have at least one safety (admissions & financial) that you’d be happy to attend (and preferably one with rolling admissions so you know early on), the rest of your schools can be in the match category.

The key components are:

How your scores stack up against the 25/75 school admitted student scores.
How your UW GPA stacks up against the admitted student GPA.
The school admit rate.

This info is available on the schools CDS and/or at IPEDS.

I know about the HC organ scholarship - unfortunately I never had the time to learn the organ, and you also need to commit to becoming a musician. They do have the Brooks scholarship, though, and I’m going to apply for that (though it is a long shot). Most schools I’m applying to have 30-50% acceptance rates. I’m not deluded enough to try for anything more competitive than that!

As far as comparisons to the 25/75 admitted rates, I usually fall into 2 different categories, which is why I’m struggling to figure out how well I’ll do. Good point about the admittance rates, though

Ok, you didn’t drop any hints as to which schools you are looking at (nor what your geographic range is), but here is what I came up with for potential matches for someone with your stats (grades + test scores):

Skidmore College
Franklin and Marshall College
Dickinson College
St Olaf College
Wheaton College
Bard College
Gettysburg College
Muhlenberg College
New College of Florida
Sarah Lawrence College
Gordon College
Lane College
Lewis & Clark College
Lawrence University
Washington & Jefferson College
Denison University
St Lawrence University
The College of Wooster

These are in increasing order of your chances of acceptance, from about 45% for Skidmore to about 80% for Wooster.

Couple of other notes:

Assuming your high school is about average, your grades are actually pretty closely aligned with your test scores - I think they are both right around the 90th percentile nationwide.

If your ECs are good and you do good interviews (as you said) and you write good applications, I think this list is a pretty good set of matches for you - schools ranked higher than that list are reaches, and those that are lower are safeties/near safeties.

Playing piano is a nice EC but it is definitely not a hook. Be sure to find some safety schools you like. If you want merit aid apply to some schools where you are in the top 75% or better statistic wise.

I think Franklin & Marshall might have a music scholarship for non-majors.

Thanks for the advice, everyone. A bunch of those colleges are already on my list: HC, HWS, Dickinson, Denison, Lafayette, Muhlenberg, maybe Ursinus or Juniata, St Vincent, F&M, Allegheny, Kenyon (I know it is a stretch, but I’m going to major in bio so I may have a better shot at it, I hope), and a few other OH schools like Otterbein, Oberlin, etc. I won’t get down there for a visit before apps are due, but I’m toying with the idea of applying to Elon and Davidson, though again, I’m not sure that I have a very good chance of getting in.

Match = You have a 40-60% chance of admission.

Nobody is a match for the elite(st) schools because of their very low admission rates and very high average test scores and GPAs among accepted applicants. No matter how much of a superstar a student is, he or she cannot quantifiably have a five-times-greater-than-average chance of getting into those schools, given the high level of competition.

It’s why we say there are schools that are “reaches for everyone”.

Some of the schools listed have average GPAs of 3.7/3.8 but average SATs in the low 600’s or 500’s - unless they’re using a weighted average or people applying have mostly non-honors classes, I’m not sure what the story is.

How about Union?

10 Yes, you do see that at some schools, which is a pretty good indication that they might be weighting GPA more highly than standardized test scores.

Since I’ve got your stuff loaded up, here’s the schools you mentioned that weren’t on my list:
(Note: For a lot of these schools, I don’t have the GPA data collected yet, so your chances may be lower if their average GPA is significantly above 3.50.)

Big reaches:
Oberlin: 10%
Davidson: 15%
Kenyon: 20%

Reaches:
HC: 30%
Union: 30%
Lafayette: 40%
Dickinson: 45%
F&M: 45%

Matches:
Muhlenberg: 60%
Denison: 75%
HWS: 80%
Elon: 80%

Safety:
Allegheny: 99%
Juniata: 99%
Otterbein: 99%
St Vincent: 99%
Ursinus: 99%

Good point - I didn’t think that it might be the colleges that weight GPA more heavily than SATs - in that case I may have trouble… I’ve thought about Union but it is way the heck up there (if I have to drive 10 hours I’d rather drive 10 hours south!). But it is still on my naviance list to check out.

I added Union College to post #13

Hmm…food for thought…I may want to try to get a few more into the match range and fewer in the safety range. Although I’d say that Allegheny may be more of a match, especially in the sciences dept.

Allegheny College (2014 CDS) has an average GPA of 3.75, so yeah, that might be more of a match than a safety for you.

Like I said, you need to check these schools out and make note of which ones have high incoming GPAs, and knock your chances down accordingly.

So in summary, a good “match” school would be something in the 40-60% chance of admissions range, at least according to the numbers. I’m hoping that EC will bump up my chances, and that with a slight bump in GPA and SATs I’ll be in even better shape for at least some of the schools listed. And I need to recheck to see which schools put heavier emphasis on GPA - I won’t do as well with those.
NickFlynn, how did you come up with the percentage chances of my getting in the schools you listed?

I don’t have GPA data for most of the schools, so I basically just used your test scores ranked against their published 25/75 test score data, and used that ranking combined with the admit rate to compute a chance. I also adjust roughly for how your GPA measures against their stats, although for many of these schools I didn’t have GPA data directly, hence the caveat I gave you about checking that.

In general:
If you are in the middle of the pack, scores-wise, that means your admit rate = published admit rate
If you are over the 75 percentile, your admit rate = about 2 X the published admit rate
If you are around the 25th percentile, your admit rate = about 1/2 the published admit rate

There’s a little more to it than that, but that’s the general idea. There are some other factors (gender, URM, legacy, etc) but I didn’t use any of that stuff to produce the numbers I posted.

I think it is reasonably accurate (more so if I take the time to go find the actual GPA data), especially for schools with more homogeneous student bodies like LACs.