UC’s and CSU’s use 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation so you are only half way there in regards to your GPA. Class rank is not used so much will depend upon your UC/CSU capped weighted GPA, test scores, HS course rigor and your essays (for the UC’s only).
Here is the Rogerhub UC GPA calculator so when you complete Junior year, plug in your grades into the calculator to get your UW UC GPA, Capped weighted UC GPA and Fully weighted UC GPA. All the UC’s and all the CSU’s (exception Cal Poly SLO) use the Capped weighted UC GPA.
https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
I would say based on your posted GPA so far, UC Merced might be your only option but you still have another year to bump up your UC/CSU GPA.
Below are admit rates for different capped weighted UC GPA’s which are not major specific to give you an idea of your chances:
Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:
UCB: 1.8%
UCLA: 2.2%
UCSD: 7.2%
UCSB: 10.1%
UCI: 11.1%
UCD: 16.6%
UCSC: 43.8%
UCR: 63.3%
UCM: 88.7%
Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:
UCB: 12.6%
UCLA: 11.7%
UCSD: 38.7%
UCSB: 53.6%
UCD: 56.5%
UCI: 52.1%
UCSC: 75.7%
UCR: 90.1%
UCM: 96.1%
Below is the SAT/ACT target ranges for the UC’s:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:
UCB: 1280-1490
UCLA: 1280-1500
UCSD: 1250-1470
UCSB: 1210- 1450
UCD: 1190-1430
UCI: 1190-1420
UCSC: 1170-1380
UCR: 1090-1310
UCM: 1020-1230
25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCB: 30-34
UCLA: 30-34
UCSD: 29-34
UCSB: 28-33
UCD: 26-32
UCI: 26-32
UCSC: 26-31
UCR: 23-30
UCM: 20-27
Your intended major will also have an impact on your chances for the UC’s and CSU’s, so the more competitive the major, the higher stats are needed.
I would start looking at some of the Cal States since there are far more options with your GPA for the CSU’s vs. the UC’s and you can get an excellent education at any of the CSU’s. I have one son that just graduated from a CSU (SDSU) and another that graduated from a UC (UCD). Both got a great education and are doing well in their major fields post graduation.
Then calculate your Eligibility index:
If you took the Redesigned SAT:
(CSU capped weighted GPA X 800) + (SAT Evidence Based Reading & Writing (EBRW) + Math Score) = Eligibility Index
Eligibility index for ACT:
(CSU capped weighted GPA X 200) + (ACT Composite x10)= Eligibility Index
**CSULB and SJSU use a modified EI for STEM/Engineering majors:
http://www.sjsu.edu/admissions/impaction/impactionresultsfreshmen/index.html
You will then be ranked based on EI and major and they accept from the top down until all spots are filled.
You will get priority at your local CSU which you can look up on this link. Local applicants usually require a lower EI to get an acceptance unless the program is highly impacted.
http://www.calstate.edu/sas/onestopkiosk/documents/CSULocalAdmission-ServiceAreas.pdf
Impacted campuses/majors: https://www.calstate.edu/sas/documents/ImpactedProgramsMatrix.pdf