FWIW: I personally know of the following “Accepted to _________ but rejected from UF” stories from recent years, so not all hope is lost (of course these are purely anecdotal). Listed in order of shock value: UChicago, Emory, Davidson, Boston College (me and two friends), NYU, Brandeis, Wake Forest. A lot of these were URM and/or students that had incredible recommendations. Plus, having additional essay supplements, interviews, and more time to give each app a more thorough reading (potentially), meant that these students were still able to get into some awesome schools despite the ding from UF.
All that said, I’m so happy that you’re looking into New College. It is such an awesome school. If BC meets my full need, then I probably won’t be considering NCF anymore, but if they do not, then it’s back to my very happy backup while I wait out the rest of these decisions.