<p>National Merit State Cut-off is NOT just the top 1%. It varies by state and takes in factors like HS graduation rates and making sure every state has a representative number. In TX, it has varied every year, but has traditionally been in the top .75% to the top .6%. In some states, the cut-off will include much more than that top 1% of scores. So knowing the top 1% does not give you the answer. And YES, score have gone down historically. Last year in TX, scores took a huge 4 pt leap to 219 and those who understand the formulas on this board (not me, but there are others) are predicting a 2-3 pt drop to 216 or 217. Prior to last year’s 219, Texas has traditionally been 215 or 216, so yes, it has gone up AND down over the years. Overall scores in TX definitely dropped a few points this year. So you have a decent chance, but you won’t know for sure until later this month at the earliest. Best of luck to you!!!</p>