<p>Yes. The idea is to identify not the top 1% (or whatever exact percentage they use) nationally, but the to 1% within each state.</p>
<p>So, yes if Texas has a larger share of HS graduates, it will have a larger share of National Merit Semifinalists. That does not necessarily mean the qualifying score will drop - you have to look at who those graduates are, and whether they took the PSAT/SAT or opted for ACT instead.</p>
<p>They use the number of graduates to allocate slots, then use the scores of those who chose to take the PSAT (or whose school chose for them) to fill those slots. If the brightest kids in Texas all take the PSAT, that could cause the qualifying score to rise).</p>