If there's a tech skills shortage, why are so many computer graduates unemployed?

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41

“How can you not see that gutting the workforce in the USA will eventually result in reduced profits here? Look at any destroyed inner city and you can see the results of jobs leaving an area. Is anyone making “profits” in those areas? In some cases, US entities will step in and redevelop the area using funding from outside. Who’s going to do that when the devastated area is the entire USA? The Chinese? The Germans? Do you want them deciding who wins and who loses here???”

It doesn’t really matter what I want. The market forces are bigger than me and bigger than even the US govt. The Russians learned that after a painful exercise.

And yes, we will need to redevelop USA. We will need loads of job training. We will need people to move. Given that interest rates are so low, we should borrow the money to do that. But Americans will have to willing to go through massive changes in the way things were in the so-called good old days. Another poster made a great point about the flexibility of workers in the emerging economies. Americans will need to learn from that.

42

@1Wife1Kid, no, this company does not outsource tech jobs. So it wasn’t some bright management decision. I have never seen a company with anything but blunt force decision making on what to outsource. I worked with a company (you would know their name, too) who has outsourced security architecture decisions to low level/fairly low skilled workers in a South American country. It is only a matter of time before that short sighted decision comes back to bite them.

After 30+ years as a project manager working across many companies, I can assure you that your opinion of how strategic and smart management is on IT outsourcing and the impact is laughable. But I suspect it pays your bills to tell everyone how great it is. People like me are left to clean up the mess, and watch good employees (who for the most part do a much better job) lose their livelihoods.

43

So the poster @1Wife1Kid seems to support the idea that for the majority of US population salaries, prices and the standard of living will be equalized with the rest of the world. Only select few will still maintain the high standard of living and these, of course, are the people who went to the elite schools ( they will do the outsourcing of other people’s jobs).
But what if there is a better way for our country! By presidential decree on Jan 1, 2020 on all US Internet routers interconnecting to foreign lands we will install what is called an access list. It will look like this (in Cisco parlance): deny ip any any log . American people will lovingly call it the Big Internet Wall of the USA and it will be beautiful.
Any company that wants to pass through this filter will have to submit an application to the IRS and pay a Uuuuge tax. Displaced IT workers will now be employed by the IRS to review these applications and to selectively open the Internet. Money obtained through this new tax will be used to uplift the living standard of American people.
Pricing schedule we will fine tune soon but it will look like this:
You want your X-rays to be read off-shore? Fine, 80% tax
You want animation for your film to be done off-shore? 90% tax
You want to manage your US data center from off-shore? 95% tax
You want to develop software to be used by US people off-shore? 99% tax

44

So a primary argument here is that US IT people are brilliant, yet US managers are idiots? What a waste of MBA training.

45

US managers are not idiots, they are short sighted and focused on current profits that improve the current bottom line (which is what their compensation is based on).

46

Are we going to turn into a Suzanne Collins (Hunger Games) world where every district basically provides one thing, and everyone depends on the good will of the Capital?

It sounds simplistic, and I understand the intricacies (sort of) of global trade, but do we ever think about where it’s going?

47

I would like to highlight again that this article is mostly about the UK - tech jobs outside of the US pay less and are less available. What is said about the UK does not apply to the US.

H1B’s are a whole other argument, but having worked in tech for a few years now, I can confidently say that outsourcing development is not going to happen for a good while - communication is the biggest hurdle in development, and time zones, language barriers, and more are going to keep that from becoming a majority of development.

Good tech talent is being recruited like wildfire. I’ve had multiple full-time job offers while in school, and no one I know is struggling to find work who is college aged. This is not a problem for university graduates in the US. Ageism, yes, that is a valid concern, but also one that is not going to kill the industry. There are many tech companies without ageism who offer competitive jobs.

Go search software development jobs in your area. Go on any company’s career site - you will find tech roles open at most. Tech workers switch companies regularly (every 2-5 years) to get a variety of work. There are so many jobs shuffling around - it’s really a crazy industry in so many ways.

@intparent details a lot of why outsourcing just doesn’t work at a big scale and often fails at small scale. Companies learn, one way or the other. Those that don’t pay for it. I’ve seen this every time in my experience.

Beyond that, so many crazy things are going on in this thread!

So, this post very well could be all hyperbole and a joke, but sadly, I can’t tell given that I’ve met people that think this is something that could happen.

So here’s how this actually goes down (if the technical of the idea even worked):

  1. The big ISP's, who would lose money on this and be required to do tons of work to implement it, laugh, say no, and the government pouts. If the US tries to penalize them, the country loses internet access, and people are up in arms.
  2. The ISP's somehow agree to this, so all other countries proceed to block all US internet traffic, and the internet is no longer global. This will hurt everyone, especially the US.
  3. Somehow, everyone decides to do this, and foreign countries play along in this hypothetical scenario. So, people create a new network to replace the internet and keep it free. It will take some time but the tech community would be up in arms over this new law and would adapt.

The mere concept of your idea is completely against net neutrality and assumes that the US has some sort of influence over said ISP’s, which if put to the test, will show that they are not influenced in any real way. Try to tell Google (who is trying to spread Fiber over the US) to block incoming traffic - I dare you.

There’s no way to tell traffic apart - how do you allow a cousin in France to send an email to you and differentiate it from those precious other data packets? In the current architecture of the internet, you really can’t. Even if you could, people would simply format their data to go through the filter - maybe as fake video frames let’s say.

You say you’d tax software development - what stops someone from sending a USB drive or 10 with all of the work? Tax avoided. Are you going to start searching all mail into the US with a fine tooth comb? That will also go over just as well.

On top of that, what are you taxing? The internet traffic itself? A company could get its offshore data for pennies then. If you tax the actual pay, how are you tracking that? The internet wall won’t give you any answers there.

This whole idea is so ridiculous and hilarious that I just had to detail out a small part. There’s so much I didn’t mention here. I know some of this is tongue in cheek (I hope), but it’s not even conceptually feasible, beyond not being a good idea at all.

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@PengsPhils – obviously that post was a joke … but other countries routinely block internet access for their people, make US tech giants bend to their whims, set huge “fines” on US companies, etc. US companies are already blocking traffic in some countries because they required to in order to do business there. The idea that “the people” will somehow create their own replacement is silly (sneaker-net, at best). You can’t even do that here, right now, without approval of a bunch of government agencies. Even the vaunted Google is backing off of their fiber rollout.

49

The problem is that companies today are essentially trans-national in character and sometimes what is good for the company may not be good for the country in which they operate. When there were only a few countries with open markets, The US was able to keep the good jobs here, but with China, India, and the former Soviet Bloc countries embracing capitalism, the labor pool has increased exponentially.

This trend is not going to reverse. I don’t see a way for democratic Governments to force companies to change their hiring practices. Lobbyists and special interest groups will pour enough money into the legislative process to get what they want. So where does that leave US workers?

Sadly, not in a very good place.

When a worker is young and has a CS degree from the US, a lot of companies will hire him for his skills since the economic case to hire him is strong. But as this worker progresses, his salary is going to get out of whack and by the time such workers are 40, the economics may not make sense anymore for the company, specially since they now have a global workforce to pick from. So they will get the next pool of younger/foreign workers. Unless a country has draconian labor laws, it is next to impossible to prevent this. And in the unlikely case that such laws are enacted, it will land up hurting younger workers in the country.

Maybe a small percentage of the original pool of workers will continue to prosper, either because they have kept their skills updated or because they have risen into decision making positions, but for the rest the outlook does not look very good.

I think the only way for a worker to escape this fate, is to keep their skills updated at a frantic pace. They have to spot and get on the next hot IT trend a few years before the off-shore market is able to provide large enough number of resources to wipe out the salary differential they can command. There will always be such areas, but that makes life harder, specially as the worker ages. Nowadays these trends mature in less than five years and then there is a lot of mainstream talent available. Once the supply catches up with demand, the game is over for that area, and it is time to move on, if an IT worker wants to command high wages. This means a worker can’t be loyal to any company and must essentially look after his or her own interests, because the company is not going to care. Expecting the Government to do something here is a very very risky strategy.
Sadly, this means that IT workers will have to constantly change jobs, relocate and must even be prepared to move overseas, which all creates a rather unstable environment for raising a family.

Based on this, here is what I would recommend if you are young and considering a career in IT

  1. Get a CS degree from a university that is both affordable and is heavily recruited by companies in the Valley. In this regard it is better to get a CS degree from San Jose State university than spending a ton of money getting a CS degree from an Ivy, for example. Valley companies are on average on the cutting edge of technology right now, exceptions not withstanding. Move to the Valley, at least initially till you can build the foundations for your career. The critical mass of such companies in the valley matters. Don’t be suckered into working for “Big Blue” in Poughkeepsie, New York. That’s not where the technology trends are getting set.

  2. Don’t stay in a job/role for more than a couple of years. If you are not learning a new technology every few years, leave and go elsewhere. Do not remain in any company for too long. You will NOT be rewarded for your Loyalty and your skills will deteriorate very quickly. What Google or Facebook or Apple wants from you, may not be what will be good for your career in 10 years. Stay while you are learning a hot technology, then move on to learn a new technology, either within the same company or at a different company.

  3. Your degree will become obsolete very quickly. Universities can teach CS basics but can’t keep up with the latest. They are not geared for that. Set aside some of your salary for training on your own or exploit your company’s resources as much as possible. Constantly keep your skills updated and I mean constantly. You have to be a mercenary about this. Get certified in the hottest technologies early. Keep adding these certifications.

  4. Learn to network really well. Spend time on it constantly.

  5. Be nice and friendly. You are going to have to call in a lot of favors, so cultivate this trait early and practice it. I have seen too many arrogant tech kids in my career. This is definitely a career limiting move.

  6. Never stop interviewing. I don’t care how happy you are in your job, always keep looking. Be in job search mode 24x7.

  7. Take bigger risks with your career early and consider starting your own company, when you don’t have too many responsibilities. Labor is never going to be paid the same as capital in the US. That is just the reality. You can fight it or play the game better.

  8. If you can’t do 7) Try and get to a high level executive position by the time you are 45. You will need that security as you age.

  9. Even with all of this, expect to get hit with lay-offs several times in your career, so save a lot, like a maniac. Your sanity and financial well-being depends on it. Have a cushion of several months of living expenses. At age 45, for example expect as much as a year to find a new assignment, so start building that fund now, you will need it. Never touch this rainy day fund for anything. This is your “unemployment insurance”.

  10. Sadly, consider yourself alone on this journey. Don’t rely on the Government or the company you work for now to make things easier for your or to be your advocate. Your interests don’t align with theirs.

50

The political reaction to the increasingly common viewpoint that the business and political establishment cares nothing about the common working person, or actively promotes policies to make the common working person poorer, can be quite ugly, in the rise in support for nationalist authoritarian politicians (either nominally left or right wing, often bringing a lot of other political garbage along for the ride) who take advantage of the generated discontent. Of course, they promote a false hope, in that if they win, things are likely to get worse for everyone.

51

The foundational concepts of CS that you learn in school are the tools you should bring with you for your future self education. The specific computers, computer languages, and development environments that you use in school may go obsolete quickly, but the concepts behind algorithmic complexity, operating systems, etc. will still be relevant many years or decades later.

52

If your value to the company doesn’t increase with age, your salary should just stay flat, else of course you will be laid off. There are many jobs where a 58 year old is no better than a 28 year old.

53

If labor markets were perfectly efficient and participants (employers, employees, and unions if present) were perfectly rational, that would be the case. However, there is a strong ingrained social expectation of increasing pay with seniority, presumably from the days when very long term employment with one employer was more common, and loyalty (in both directions) was valued. Combining that with the assumption that most people are unlikely to want a job that pays less than what they were paid before means that many employers may assume that older people are just too expensive, even if it is not actually the case for a particular applicant.

54

Not unique to CS in the least. This applies to every single degree a student can receive. The basics in any degree is just the starting point.

55

@intparent said:

Have you seriously thought about whether it is more likely that A) Every company does this poorly, or B) The companies you worked for have done this poorly.

In either case, you have to wonder why more project managers “who know how to do things right” don’t move up into senior management and fix things?

56

From a company perspective, I would say the above this way: the production value of any job rarely increases over time, as the job purpose often stays static. There are changes in how things are done (typewriter vs word processor, email vs. endless phone calls, FEDEX overnight vs waiting four days for hard mail etc.), however the job value and purpose are the same. And it is job value and purpose that determine pay, not the skill of the person - a person typing 60 wpm is in 99% of cases no more valuable than someone who types 120 wpm. A person who codes better than another is often not even recognizable if the coding is not difficult because the better coder never gets to use the higher skills if the job does not require it.

The only way a 58 year-old becomes more valuable to a company is in two possible ways: 1) the person acquires new skills by stepping outside the current job and acquiring new skills (going back to school, taking a trainee position for a higher up position etc.) or 2) the job’s production value has changed and thus the employee is invaluable because to retrain another person to integrate the new things would be too costly because the employee’s experience in the old is what is required to properly integrate the new.

In both cases above, it is the job that determines the increased pay, not the employee’s experience. If the job does not change, the employee’s experience is not relevant to pay.

57

I must first admit that I am not an expert in global trade. I only studied it in grad school.

The fundamental theory as I understand it is this: Everyone produces what they are most efficient at, thus optimizing total cost of production across the globe. For a country like Cambodia, that may mean focusing on flower production for the global floral industry. For a country like USA, that may mean focusing on banking and finance and providing those services to the world at large.

This means no country will do everything, they will instead export what they are good at and import what they are not good at. That does mean very lop-sided economies and job markets by country. So what happens to those that want to go into finance in Cambodia and floraculture in the USA? Trade theory would suggest free flow of labor and capital as the answer, so that these people can move to the respective countries where their areas of interest are strong. This would mean far lower barriers to immigration.

This is very far from hunger games.

The trouble is, we have global trade but high barriers to migration and immigration. Countries don’t want to accept too many foreigners, and individuals don’t want to move to a foreign country. That’s the issue. Otherwise the global trade model is simply brilliant. It would raise standard of living across the globe (and it has increased global standard of living already).

58

@hebegebe, I just counted in my resume – I have worked with at least 19 different companies as an IT project manager. 9 of them outsource technical jobs to some degree in the areas where I was managing projects. 9 for 9, the outsourcing was hurting them in quality and speed of deployment. That seems like a pretty solid sample.

I can’t speak for other PMs, but I like to be close to the action. I like to be in meetings where designs & architectures are being reviewed, and watching a project go from a gleam in someone’s eye to something deployed and working. I also like being on the learning curve, seeing new technologies and new business areas. I don’t want to manage a permanent budget and staff. I get offers for FTE management positions often from my clients, but it isn’t how I want to spend my days.

59

We’ve been getting a taste of that for the last few election cycles ourselves with the rise of political movements whether genuine grassroots or faux populist.

There’s also a lot of antipathy towards both major party candidates from many voters precisely because they’re perceived to be too closely tied to the financial interests of corporations and top echelons of the upper class(top 1% or even less than that) which they felt lead to the massive loss of good paying jobs which could support an American middle class lifestyle…whether it was working as an auto factory worker in the '50s-'70s or more recently…working in computer programmer/IT…especially at the entry-mid levels.

There may also be a historical parallels between transnational corporations and the royal/aristocratic families of the 18th/19th centuries and how perceptions of them caring much more about maintaining their social/financial interests at the very expense of the rest of their respective national populations was a factor in sparking revolutions leading to their overthrow and, in some cases, some aristocrats literally losing their heads.

60

intparent,

Perhaps this company was at risk of missing a deadline because it didn’t have enough people? Did you ever think of that? Of course, they could have hired an army offshore by letting go of the US employees. Perhaps the fact that they don’t offshore/outsource IS the issue?

All project managers have to do is to write a cogent business case which proves that total cost of ownership is lower is done 100% in the USA with US employees. Why don’t you start a trend and do that?