<p>Your best source for chances is your college counselor's scattergrams of acceptances/wl/rejects by GPA/SAT. For most kids, top 25% would doom them at most of the schools on your list. With a very well-respected private - with connections - this is not the case. But some of it is going to depend on their clout with the colleges on your list.</p>
<p>You come across as an accomplished writer in your posts, and if you are careful with your essays that is certainly going to be to your benefit. Good luck with all your applications. I hope you are accepted at Duke - I think you would have a blast there!</p>