Important lessons learned

I understand the issues are complicated and the solutions are non-trivial, but I grew up under the communism, and my childhood and young adulthood were much happier than those of my children :grinning: Free health care and good education, very safe environment where nobody spies on you for being a latchkey kid (we all were), excellent social life, time for hobbies and other intellectual pursuits. Of course, this was a weakened and dying sort of communism that was not sustainable. I count myself lucky to have lived there as a kid, and then being able to come here as an adult.

It is good and bad when the sky is the limit as everybody is constantly chasing something better and people don’t or can’t enjoy a simpler and more mindful existence. Just another perspective.

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You’d be surprised. MBAs often are on this score, but that’s because of who you’re hanging around with. (And – psst – history courses.)(Also art.) I’m suddenly remembering how I was inoculated against these things by wealth. Hung around with a lot of very rich kids. Learned to see wealth on that scale, also saw what it was and wasn’t good for. Eventually went off to work for an old prof at LSE; was invited to join his grad program. I turned it down because even from there it was clear that if I took that road I’d spend my life making rich people richer, and that wasn’t something I wanted to be involved in. I didn’t see any good in that. Some years later I calculated what my likely income loss had been by not taking that road, and it was something staggering. In the other balance pan, a life. I don’t regret it.

When my kid was little, and we were still in the recession and I was unemployed and living on savings – you don’t get unemployment when you freelance – I got a call to come teach at a for-profit college. Boy, was I excited. I really needed that money. And I got there, and I found out it was an operation for both defrauding the Treasury and preying on the poorest, least-educated people around and robbing them of their chance for a real education. So I ripped my new boss a new one, and quit, and then went and testified to a Senate subcommittee, and handed over my training materials. The subcommittee’s work resulted on legislation restricting the fraudulent activities of for-profits. My kid and I did manage to go on eating.

A few years back I saw where my institution was going and put myself on the market, and was interviewing at a T10 school. I was back for the second interview, meeting with a ludicrous number of people, when it hit me very hard that I wasn’t going to go there. As it turned out, I wasn’t going to go there anyway, because despite @roycroftmom’s ideas of how family court works, it would’ve meant losing custody to a dad who wasn’t going to do a good job of parenting. But I wasn’t going to go there because it was so blindingly evident that these kids had everyfreakingthing in the world. In no way did they need me. Don’t get me wrong; it was a wonderful place with very, very exciting work going on, and the salary would’ve been a lot higher (and, to be fair, so would COL have been). But those kids, and faculty for that matter, already had a treasure mountain a mile high. The place where I am has next to nothing. And I’m there walking across a courtyard knowing that I can’t justify the move. Take away from kids who have nothing, give to people who have everything. I can’t justify it for myself, I can’t justify teaching my kid that this is how to be in the world.

I am a public servant. My institution has annual-review software built for some corporate environment, and every year it asks me about my customer-service performance, and every year I say for the record that I’m not in the business of customer service: I’m in the business of educating next generations for the next 50 years of this country’s wellbeing. I do it because the idea of America and its promises are extremely important to me, and because on a personal level the young people themselves are important. To a lesser extent, so’s the science and this country’s scientific enterprise. It’s possible I should be more excited about that – I’ve been fortunate enough to be part of some significant, meaningful breakthroughs – but in truth it just helps justify how I’ve spent the last decade. The main thing is the education.

Many people in education and other forms of public service can tell you similar stories.

Now and then I teach Hannah Arendt’s longish essay on personal responsibility under a dictatorship. I’m not generally a fan of Arendt, but I like this essay. She asks an interesting question in it: why didn’t some people become Nazis when it was obviously in their interest to become Nazis, and very much not in their interest to refuse? It’s worth reading. I thought at first that her answer was too simple, but eventually I came to think she’s probably correct.

Anyway. If I thought this place would actually be better off without this university, and that the kids would be, on balance, better if it didn’t exist, I’d drop it. And fight it.

In five, ten years I expect I’ll leave this work and go back to my own work. I’ve so far taught maybe 500 kids, mentored many young professors and program directors, written a textbook that taught around a million grade-school kids, written part of another that taught maybe 15K college kids, unsuccessfully tried to defend the interests of GED-takers, did a bunch else. My graduates are at national labs, teaching, in medicine
it’s funny, I’ve lost track. They write sometimes with news. But in a while I’ll have done most of my bit for the public interest (I hope) and will to turn to other things that I also have some responsibility to, and are even less remunerative. The question about why I did this, apart from its being the most stable work that was here, the parental responsibility, and the custody tether – after all, I certainly don’t have to do all this extra work I’m not paid for – has a simple answer: who else is going to do it? I was given much, there’s a dearth of volunteers here, I figure it’s my turn. Show up in droves and put your hand to it, and I’ll declare my shift over and clock out.

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Yeah, I have to say, I’m not a huge fan of that solution. I mean yes, in an immediate sense, you want to make poor people not poor, give them money. But Yang’s ideas aren’t rooted in any experience of unemployment, and it’s also not enough money to do the trick.

It’s a weird thing, but I suspect the answer comes back to complexity evaluation. If you build a society that’s too complex for people, you’ve failed. If you build industries that aren’t centrally for employing people in reasonably meaningful work, you’ve failed. And I actually think that a good chunk of the problem is the absolutely stupendous rate of societal change we’ve been living through in the last few decades – population growth, communications, mobility, mass refugee movements, the simple awareness of so many other people so fast – and that it’ll sort out somewhat, but in the meantime, there are solutions beyond throwing money at people to do nothing. (Not everyone’s got wonderful entrepreneurial or creative lives inside them burning to get out: lots of people just want to do useful work that they can get into, with other people.)

A few months back a friend posted a video on my linkedin feed, a sweet, mesmerizing package-sorting machine. Really slick. And my first thought was: wow! Now what are you going to do with all the people this will throw out of work?

So that’s a real question. If you’re going to produce something that takes the place of people’s jobs, then maybe you should be required, before you can sell or buy this thing, to show how you’re going to work it in without throwing all these people out of work. Bring the machine in as a proposition, and say, okay, we want to use this thing because holy cow efficiency, now how can we do this in a way where you stay employed here and are doing something else that genuinely benefits the business and that you want to be doing and can do. Maybe you need to hire a consultant for that, maybe you and your crew figure that out on your own. At that point you really have to reckon with what people are capable of. Maybe it works, and your business grows, and you keep the machine; maybe it doesn’t, and you find that no, you don’t actually know how to use the machine well in a responsible manner, so you’ll go on employing people. Either way, what you’re not allowed to do is throw people onto unemployment in order to put more money in your own pocket. I can even see something akin to Kelo, where an employee says no, this is my job, you can’t raze it for your robot development, and the court says yeah, that’s his job, you better go around.

The sticking point would be the pressure to tickbox it: put people to work painting a wall over and over and call it good, something like that. You’d have to forestall that by giving the employees a weighty voice in the decision: is this good work, at least as good as before, or no? And you’d have to guard against all kinds of nonsense attempts at getting around the rules: harassing people into leaving, paying them off with something insignificant, etc. But once that requirement was in, I think we’d rapidly develop industries to do with questions about what constitutes good, profitable, doable work, and how to develop it so that it remains central in a world full of robots.

A long instance of “just because you can doesn’t mean you should.”

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If this mentality had taken hold, the world would be much poorer today. Over the past three hundred years, the industrial revolution and automation has generally made people wealthier.

No, no, no. What is this fantasy world where competitive pressures don’t exist and where every company will do things in a less efficient way?

Now, it certainly is possible that this time, the forecasts of mass unemployment are right. But note those predictions have been untrue many times, most recently with the computer revolution.

If those predictions are right this time, then yes, as a society we need to think about answers. But forcing companies to be inefficient and bear the cost themselves isn’t it.

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Sure, if the Luddites had succeeded in wrecking the industrial age, lots more people would be employed- today, and in past generations. Life expectancy would be 55? Most women would have 6-8 children knowing that half of them wouldn’t survive to adulthood? Polio and Smallpox would come roaring back every few years. I read a fascinating study a few years ago that posited that one of the reasons that the French Revolution hadn’t happened earlier is that the nutritional intake- across the board- of every adult who was not royalty- was averaging 600-800 calories a day which did not produce enough energy, mental acuity, physical stamina, for anything beyond subsistence. And because of a decades worth of better rainfall, harvests, and more temperate growing conditions, caloric intake improved enough to give the peasants a shot at thinking systemically and able to move more than the amount required to put bread on the table. And then- one bad harvest- revolution.

I’m not buying the notion that the solution is to prevent innovation for the sake of sustaining low wage, low productivity jobs held by people who believe they have no other options. Too much human potential there.

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Funny you should talk about the nutrition issue - it’s a theory my older kiddo studied this year relative to height (or declining height) in and around the Civil War period (don’t remember the details). It was really interesting and something I knew nothing about (despite being a history - and French! - major back in the day when that was encouraged).

We don’t live in a vacuum. Nature is much more powerful and we can’t stop its progression. If we try, our society would be left behind to the detriment of everyone in it. On the other hand, I’m sympathetic to the idea of having rules and regulations in place to minimize the disruptions and keep in check the greed that’s also part of the nature.

Yes, Actually many revolutions have been driven by a bad harvest. Syria is said to be one of the most recent.

So my natural inclination is to think of agriculture in the 19th/early 20th Century. It took a lot of work to feed a small number of people. Today, with genetically engineered seeds, we have avoided the famines of even 20-30 years ago. ( BTW, I’m not a GMO supporter but the tech exists and it’s crazy to think people are going to starve to support a point).
What you are missing is that most people will find the best job for them based on a large number of factors. Technology has made it really easy for people to live even better lives. I started working from home in 97, I had the only internet connection on the road. Today, many people work to live and technology helped them get there. Likewise, robotics. One can look at them replacing jobs ( and that is 100% going to happen). But what skills does a person need to make them valuable? My father worked in a dying industry, guess what, people left and found other work.

I don’t want to live in a society where people decide for me and my family how to share in my wealth. There’s a limit to government. And it’s never efficient. Going back to the era of the “Great Society” doesn’t factor in today’s technology or a myriad of many other factors. And like everything you have to consider the entire picture.
It’s interesting that people who chose to do the greater good, now want to share in my financial resources. I chose a path where I made $ and lots of it. I chose it because my family was poor and I didn’t want to raise my kids on the generosity of others. Life is about choices. Those decisions have led me to a point where I can and do share resources with others based on my choices. I like that. And I would be likely to move if that changes. Most money is easy to move esp these days. Even companies can be quite easily moved.

So, I’m flabbergasted by all this talk about redistribution. Usually also by comparing with nations with very different systems, demographics and all the rest. It’s one thing to say you want to do something, but quite another to look across the fence and take part of your neighbors harvest because you deserve it, or you think it’s the moral high ground. Good luck stealing my tomatoes.

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I don’t support re-distribution per se (I already pay nearly 50% of our annual income in taxes of some sort) but it would be great if they closed some of the loopholes which allow the astronomically wealthy to shield their money because it isn’t “income”. In terms of jobs, it is easy to suggest just switching to something new, but it isn’t as easy as that for many people - especially those with limited skills. Technology has brought us many advances and I’m not a backward looking sort, but there have been trade-offs and the brunt of the negative tradeoffs has fallen on lower income people. The problem is long term what do we do when we don’t have enough jobs for the population we have, as automation takes over more and more of our lives. Not everyone is going to be suited for a place in an information economy - lacking the skills or interest - and what do they do?

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I certainly think we can improve things. I’d start with online retailers. Billions of dollars flowing to a few and putting thousands out of business.

Yes, there has to be a way to retrain folks when the job landscape changes. I’d personally like to see some taxes put in that area.

We are going to have a long term problem if we continue to require a college degree for basic jobs, which years ago would not have required a BA.

There are lots of solutions (and problems). Some, like the increased food production per acre get solved via technology. Some increase. Some disappear. But changing the rules of the game via “redistribution” because you don’t like that some are winning and you are not, isn’t the solution. And it doesn’t solve the underlying issues long term. Money would just move and companies would reincorporate elsewhere to take advantage of economic efficiencies.

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Part of the problem faced by many today is that it has become expensive and time consuming for someone to reskill and recredential (i.e. get the needed education and training) for a different “good” job, while changes in the types of jobs in demand can be quicker than that (i.e. the time and money spent learning and credentialing a new skill can be wasted when that skill is obsoleted in less time than it took to learn). Of course, many newly unemployed people do not have the money to pay for the needed education and training up front, even though that is largely expected these days.

The greater cost of education and the increasing employer demand for it to be completed up front by employees at their own cost also means that young adults’ opportunities in the entry-level labor market are highly dependent on their parents’ (mainly financial) circumstances and choices with respect to paying for their education. For educational choices (and therefore related entry-level job choices), their own personal achievement matters only within the context of parental financial limitations.

It is increasingly the case that the US economy is becoming less competitive and trending toward a more oligopolistic and monopolistic scene in many areas, so you are being forced to share your wealth in ways that you may not otherwise want to. There is also regulatory capture imposing added costs on people in general for the benefit of a few well connected and influential businesses and people (the situation where the IRS is not allowed to provide tax preparation software because of lobbying by tax preparation software companies is one example). https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674237544 describes how this is happening in the US.

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Yes, i would say here that it is a steep uphill climb for many/most students. That being said, conceding or buying into the concept my parents aren’t wealthy so I can’t do that, will take away your long term options. I’d also say that education has always been easier for wealthy families. If everyone listened to the idea of where you are born is where you’ll end up, we would not have a lot of technology, developments and other positive things.

I would agree that the US economy has more monopolistic tendencies and oligarchs than we’ve had since the Gilded age. There’s also a tendency today for many who see this trend not to force the hand of these companies to change. So, if you don’t like Amazon or don’t like the idea of someone owning the wealth of a nation, what has one done to change that or recognize how that alters democracy?

There are a lot of small to medium sized companies employing a lot of people. And there are many small changes which can help a lot to help them grow and continue to do well. Some would look at these founders in a negative light because they make a lot of money. But they also employ a lot of people and in technology for example pay very high wages. Not every technology takes from society. Some improve it. Some make it safer. Lots of good things.

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Ask anyone in the workforce/development space- it’s not the technical skills (which solid retraining programs know how to do). It’s everything else. Communication, emotional intelligence (we don’t shove our boss even when she says something stupid). And teaching the technical skills goes from “we know how to do this” to impossible if you are working with adults who are reading at a 6th grade level, don’t know what a percentage represents, don’t know why the decimal point goes one place and not another.

I have a friend who left corporate life to devote herself to the retraining/upskilling sector (not-for-profit) and she can tell you that if a now unemployed, low skilled factory worker (not the high tech Tesla type worker) does not understand that when you are retraining to become a pharm tech to work in a hospital, knowing that 4.0 mg can save someone’s life but 40.0 mg kills them-- well, she’s running a training program, not a comprehensive K-12 institution.

So I agree with the OP- it starts with bad schools, or with families who don’t have the wherewithal to help their kids take advantage of bad/OK/great schools. And she sees a LOT of adults with previously undiagnosed learning issues, so those grocery store clerks now getting displaced by self checkout registers are not going to be able to retrain into jobs which require reading/computation without all the support/therapies that they might have gotten with a diagnosis in the second grade.

But I digress. The countries that insist on residual employment by redundant workers even while faster/better technologies come along are the countries which watch their jobs go elsewhere. I worked for a company which kept a skeleton crew in our French subsidiary but staffed up aggressively in the former Eastern bloc companies to support work in France. Why? You could never fire anyone in France. Show up late, never, take an extra week off your already generous vacation time without telling anyone- it was too hard to fire someone and cost too much. So those jobs drifted East without anyone noticing.

I don’t mind paying higher taxes personally. I am a first gen American who has benefited so much by the generosity of the American people. (OP- notice- this is one thing MANY boomers concede). But I realize that once the perception creeps in of confiscatory wealth, the wealth heads elsewhere.

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Lots of people in worse financial situations must prioritize short term survival over anything long term.

Again, those in the worse financial situations may not have the luxury of political action when they are focused on short term survival, nor are they likely to have the power and money to do much in that area.

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I don’t mind paying high taxes either. And they are very high for small-medium sized business owners especially if you sell a company after many years.

But I think in terms of, someone paid for my college and grad school education. They believed in me, so in turn, I’ve built a couple of companies and run a company and do so in a way that makes the pie bigger. I’m grateful for the opportunities and pay it forward. That being said, I’m not in the business or mindset of paying for someone else’s idea of utopia. Especially when that idea isn’t economically feasible.

The highest paid people pay the most in taxes. That’s been the case for a long time. Corporations pay based on a convoluted system with some paying very little and others having to follow lots of rules. Should the system change? Can it be improved? Yes. How to do it. Anyone’s guess.

Yes, I know this first hand. Many work 2-3 jobs. It’s common in many immigrant communities also. Has always been the case. That doesn’t stop them from working towards a goal. The goal doesn’t have to be college. It can be owning your own taxi, or pizza place or making enough to buy a condo. Really anything. What takes from this is the concept of I am born here so I will stay her because my parents weren’t rich and can’t give me what I need. Do you know anyone whose parents were poor, divorced, bankrupt, or sick? These people didn’t give up they worked hard and got far.

Everyone can vote and write a letter/email. If they are not citizens they can still write an email to express their views.

First, it’s seldom that the legislators will care. That day’s long gone. If you’re not showing up with significant cash or a real threat, you’re not even having a serious conversation with their staff. The usual job of a Congressional staffer, who’s now a marketing person and watchdog rather than a political science person or social worker, is to get you to donate or go away.

Second, there’s a wealth of education that goes into both voting and view-expressing. There are entire organizations devoted to trying to teach and encourage the poor along these lines. It’s very difficult work.

If you were poor in this country and voted, you are not the norm; don’t view yourself and your sense of possibilities as representative.

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The question of credentialism came up earlier in the thread, in the context that supposedly everyone should have the opportunity to go to college. One interesting question to me is how much this credentialism is forced by vested interests who want to limit supply of new workers so they can make more money for themselves (like the childcare workers in DC who now have to get a college degree).

But another aspect from the employer perspective is that you aren’t allowed to use tests that are used in other countries (such as a numeracy test) to identify “intelligence”, so you have to rely on an actual qualification to prove competence. A similar situation of anti-discrimination efforts backfiring now seems to have occurred in some circumstances with legislation that stops an employer asking what you earn or whether you have a criminal record https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/business/economy/salary-history-laws.amp.html

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Fourth. Fourth grade. Sixth grade was 1990s. Over 10% of the population’s functionally illiterate. All this “flatten the curve” stuff – you have to wade deep into the college crowd to find people who know how to read a graph.

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I’d argue that a whole lot of demand is driven by future CC parents who want their toddlers cared for by properly qualified people. Beyond that, though, I notice that someone’s still not taking childcare and ECE seriously, and figure it’s something for 15-year-olds to do on a lazy afternoon.

Remember that Icelandic mum I mentioned? She kept that job of hers and went off quite relaxed in part because those creche workers were indeed properly qualified.

Anyway, we’ve been over these things – the credentialism, which was obviously pushed by “credential creep” decades ago, is driven now by the fact that it doesn’t matter what you’re doing; the likelihood is it’s full of complexities that require real thought and analytical/communications skills, if not advanced technical skills. The funny thing here is that you don’t want the robot progress slowed down to accommodate the humans, but you also don’t want the humans educated to the point where they can outcompete the robots. What do you want people to do?

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