Important PSAT/NMSQT Scoring Information for the NEW PSAT and National Merit

I tried to address this on some individual threads where people are talking about the projected cut off scores for the PSAT but think it needs to be it own thread to avoid confusion between total PSAT Score and Selection Index.

The College Board states the selection for National Merit will be determined by the “Selection Index” They will NOT be using the score total.

Page 24 of this document
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/redesigned-sat-k12-using-scores-and-reporting-inform-instruction.pdf

Says:

Here are some sample scores:

reading 38 writing 38 (760) math 28 (560) Selection Index 208 total score 1320
reading 38 writing 28 (660) math 38 (760) Selection Index 208 total score 1420
reading 32 writing 34 (660) math 36 (720) Selection Index 204 total score 1380

*Numbers in ( ) are the section totals for Reading and Writing and Math respectively

If these students live in a state which has a Selection Index cut off of 208 both students with a score of 1320 and 1420 would qualify for National Merit but the student with a score of 1380 would not.

People should no longer refer to the PSAT score cut off, instead they should look at the Selection Index since different scores can have a different Selection Index.

The highest Selection Index possible is 228. The Selection Index will always be an even number. Current best guess for TX Selection Index is 210.

Hi, on the official PSAT practice test released by Collegeboard, I scored a 1460 missed 0 math, missed 6 reading, missed 3 writing. How would you calculate my selection index? Is this passing for Texas?

You need to look at you score sheet. To figure your selection index from the practice PSAT test take your converted math score and divide it by 20, add that to your converted reading score and your converted writing score and then multiply by 2. Your Reading and Writing scores are the scores you added together and then multiplied by 10 in the process to get your total score.

I don’t have the score sheet handy but since you didn’t miss any math your math score would be 38 (38 is highest you can get in each of the three sections) so add 38 to whatever your reading score was and whatever your writing score was and then multiply times two.

@hilariousbanana I looked it up for you.
if you missed 6 in reading your raw score would be a 41 giving you a 34
if you missed 3 in writing your raw score would be a 41 giving you a 36
so 38+34+36= 108 x 2 = 216
If the predictions I’ve heard are correct, your selection index of 216 is 6 points over the predicted cut off for Texas

Do you now the predicted index for other states like NY?

Just a guess but TX and NY usually are very close with TX just slightly higher. The prediction for TX 210 is from a local test prep company so take it for what it’s worth. Based on that, I think NY should be 208/210.

I’m assuming Texas and NY are towards the more higher end to qualify in. Any predicted index for MO?

Thanks for pointing this out because after looking over the PSAT info I didn’t see this information. I thought they had quietly gone back to the old scoring system. I don’t understand what the point of the non-“selection index” PSAT score is. This isn’t the measure being used to determine the scholarship winners and it’s not on the same scale as the SAT anymore (why pick 1520 as a perfect score–when using scaling they can set it to anything they choose and there should be a good reason to change it from the prior scaling system). It’s ridiculously complicated.

Wow. They have predicted selection indexes for the new test already? I thought we would have to ‘wait and see’ before they could begin predicting these things.

@3scoutsmom Good info…

@3scoutsmom - I posted in the other thread, and meant to post here (will repeat the question and your response so its all in this thread):

Today at 9:02 am · edited 9:04AM from @suzyq7:

Thank you for this info. I’m really having trouble interpreting all this. Sounds like the NMS selection index does an equal weighting of reading, writing, and math, but the new PSAT does equal weighting of math at 50% and writing+reading at 50%. Without regard to the NMS contest, do you know if the old PSAT equal weighted each section when compiling the total score -therefore the PSAT is making a substantial change in how it weights the sections for the total score?

I can’t believe more of these sites with ‘predictive scores’ for the NMS Class of 2017 cutoffs have not yet updated based on this information. I know that you linked to an official doc from college board, but have you seen any documentation from the NMS people that confirms they are equal weighting the sections for cutoff qualification vs using the new PSAT total score?

Today at 9:51 am · edited 9:58AM from @3scoutsmom:

@suzyQ7 NM has used the score Index in the past but it has always been equivalent to the score. This year it is possible for one student to have a higher score and not make the cut because they have a lower selection score Index

I agree with @2muchquan- Prepscholar lists the estimate as a raw score, not selection index, so if NMS is determined by selection index, their cutoff conversion score is not relevant, at all. I’m surprised they have not updated this yet.

Also, comparing from year to year will be really off. Top score this year is 38, which would be selection index of 228. Last year’s max composite score was 240. This will cause more confusion than if they just went with SAT like totals.

Yes @2muchquan and @suzyQ7 I’m very surprised that Prepscholar hasn’t addressed this issue. It’s going to be very very confusing for some.

What about the prediction for the NJ semifinalist cut off?

@roboticsnerd33 We don’t know yet. Just do the best you can. Good luck.

Alright, thanks! @2muchquan

Someone posted this on another forum and it has a table with some estimated cutoff scores for the redesigned test. Take it with whatever skepticism you want to. http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist (Note that the table does have the index score discussed by 3scoutsmom)

@mtrosemom PrepScholar’s predictions are not valid. NM uses the selection index score not the total score. Kind of the point of this thread!

@mtrosemom I read that table in the link to contain last year’s (2015 NSMs) scores (2XX) and estimates for this year’s (2016 NSMs) scores (raw). For one thing, with the redesigned test, you could theoretically get the same score as someone else, but differing Selection Index values. See post #3 above as an example.

I may be totally wrong about this, that’s just how I’ve interpreted the information I’ve seen to-date. Hopefully we will have some clarification soon. I’m a nerdy quant at heart.

@chengallen

I am not sure how @3scoutsmom 's estimated the new cut-off (thanks for sharing your research). I did some simple math to try to figure out their methodology, but my approach my be too simple.

  • The TX cut-off for last year was 220 which is about 92% correct (220/240=.916)
  • 210 is also about 92% correct for this year's test (210/228=.921)
  • 228 is 95% of 240 and 210 is about 95% of 220 (210 /220=.9545)

So, using these relationships this is how I calculated Florida’s new cut-off to be 203

Last year cut-off / total = % correct (214 / 240 = .891)

89% of 228 is 203

The problem is this: How comfortable are we that on the top 1% in Texas will get 92% or more correct? What will the top 1% score actually score?

I am concerned the new test, or at least the practice test, is much easier than last year’s exam. How accurate of a predictor is the practice test?

So I am not sure how good these estimates are.

Essentially writing becomes more important, so students who have trouble writing will be penalized.