She did one practice SAT and scored a 1490.
On the practice PSAT, my son got:
Reading 45 out 47 (37)
Writing 41 out 44 (38)
Math 41 out 48 (740 which is 37 for the selection index)
So he got (37, 38, and 37) * 2, so total of 224 for selection index. Which is much higher than the selection index cutoff estimates for 2016… which makes me doubtful. Am I doing the math correctly? @chengallen, Does it make sense based on the number of answers he got wrong that he blew this out of the water? Was this PSAT test too easy? He’s taking the CB ‘practice SAT #2’ right now… I’ll see how those scores line up to this.
Actually, I did make a mistake His writing of 41 out 44 = 36, not 38. So his total score is 220 not 224.
Just did his practice SAT scores- similar… 37 selection index for Reading, 37 for Writing, and 37 for Math. That’s a 222 total selection index for NM calculation, and 1480 for a total SAT score out of 1600. I hope 222 exceeds the cutoff.
I really don’t believe that most Juniors are prepping for this PSAT. I think that if your kid is prepping for it and getting high scores on the practice tests then you have a really good chance to make NMS.
I think the 41 in math = 730 or 36.5 So I think his selection index would be 219.
And, remember, the PSAT is out of 1520. The SAT is out of 1600. So, I’m not exactly sure you can use the same selection index calculation for the SAT that is used on the PSAT, or whether it’s useful.
@2muchquan. Thanks… It makes zero sense to me that they made the PSAT out of 1520 instead of 1600. Like there are not enough changes, plus the difference in the selection index for NMS, and now this. I’m not sure we will be able to have any confidence about NMS qualifications until a full year from now, even if a very high score is achieved.
@mathyone I strongly agree that PrepScholar’s predictions are too low. I’d love to know how our local prep company came up with their prediction of 210 for TX which is four points higher than the 206 PrepScholar is predicting.
@3scoutsmom, I’m pretty sure he used percentages. Last year’s DC score 224/240 (93.3333%). If you take 93.333% X 228 (max score for new PSAT), you get 212.8. He’s showing 212 for DC.
For Texas and some others, this math turns out to be 1 higher than he shows. Not sure why. I guess the KEY questions is what % score do you need to get in your state to feel comfortable that you will be nominated.
The chart at prepscholar contains their “estimates”. I would be curious to see the details of how they came up with those numbers. If they just “rescaled” to compress the scores linearly based on the new lower maximum index (228 vs. 240) I would be a little skeptical. Look at the released curves. On the old PSAT, a couple of wrong answers led to a precipitous drop in score. Now, not so much. So it is too early to conclude that a given high index is going to be harder to come by this year. If you make me guess, I’ll say that the indices will be in the neighborhood of where they always have been.
But all of this is silly! Are you going to try any harder or less hard based on what you predict your state’s cutoff will be?
I do not believe any of these tests are hard enough for the best students. Most of them will miss one or two on a section, if any. If I were trying to predict, I’d just look at how many you could miss under the old system and what range of scores that corresponds to in the new system.
The new PSAT is making me more nervous than the old version despite being considerably easier. The stakes seem much higher since people will tend to score higher. Someone on this thread claimed that 7 maximum would be about the cutoff, but that can’t be right. I missed 8 math, 3 writing, and 4 reading yet still got a 216 against a predicted 210 cutoff in California (assuming I did scoring correctly). I don’t understand the significance of the score on the 1520 scale if it’s not used for NMS. Why have it at all?
Well, for most people, the only purpose of the PSAT is to project their SAT scores and give them a sense of how they are doing. NMS is actually only on the table for a small sliver of the testing population. Though it seems like EVERYONE at this forum is in the running, that’s not a true picture.
@pckeller In that case, why have two scoring systems? Why not just base NMS off the 1520 scale? Although I must admit, I am grateful for the 228 scale because it doubles the value of the English sections (I’m not great at math).
@ambitionsquared Well it’s kind of unfair, don’t you say, for those who are good at math but horrible in English (me lol 
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@ambitionsquared read @Ynotgo post #64 Very good history lesson! CB wants a score to align with the SAT NM wants scores that won’t get them sued! Solution two scores.
@3scoutsmom But wouldn’t the actual score be a better indicator of who’s fit for NMS then the whole selection index thing, because the score as a whole tells how well you did in both sections, but the selection index is merely favoring the English side of the test takes, which is obviously unfair.
Because the College Board and National Merit Corporation are 2 separate organizations w totally different objectives.
For CB, it’s about predicting future SAT performance. For NM Corp, it’s about scholarships. It’s their money and they can distribute it any way they darn well please.
My guess is that because NMFs have been disproportionately male, NM Corp probably wants better gender balance. Therefore, they are giving more weight to the CR/language section-- the sections females are generally comparatively stronger in.
Yes but they got sued because too many males were making National Merit and not enough females. National Merit is a numbers game they have to figure our how to work the numbers so they have the right distribution of male and females from each state. I don’t think anyone has ever said the National Merit process was fair. It’s their money and they can choose how they want to distribute it. Is it fair that Texas Tech offer a full ride to NMF and UT doesn’t give a dime? Is it fair that so many National Merit winners have Asian names or that some states have much higher cut off than others? Is it fair that certain ethnic groups have lower cut offs for similar scholarships?
As I tell my children, LIFE IS NOT FAIR, get used to it.
@3scoutsmom Ikr, gotta get used to it. Hopefully, if I can miraculously raise my verbal score, I might get the cutoff. I wish Maryland’s cutoff was much lower, then I wouldn’t have to go through all this stress