<p>So I'm trying to figure out how waitlisting works. Let's a college has X number of available seats. Based on the statistics, college knows how many percentage will actually join the college, so I'm assuming they offer admission to X + Y% applicants. Is this true or they only offer admission to X students, keep Z number of students on waitlist and after May 1st when they know how many are actually joining, they lift few applicants from Z.</p>
<p>Things have changed so much in waitlisting that it’s very difficult to tell how it works. When you see schools that are waitlisting hundreds of kids, or a huge number, you know they are doing this to work their yield numbers. It really depends upon the school. The best you can do is look at historical trends in terms of kids making it off the waitlists, but even then, I’ve seen huge variations. With so many kids applying to so many colleges and each can only go to one, it makes it far more difficult for schools to predict as accurately and so they use the waitlist as a buffer. </p>
<p>How waitlists “work” is one of the shameful sides of college admissions, IMHO.</p>
<p>There is no rule that requires putting only enough kids on the waitlist to provide a reasonable buffer for a shortcoming in enrollment. So some smart college adcoms realized they could have it both ways. They could use the waitlist to have a stock of kids to cover any shortfalls. And they could use the waitlist to pass out “acceptances” that didn’t require actually enrolling the kid!! Parents and other kids would treat these phantom acceptances like real ones in signalling desirability.</p>
<p>Exhibit A should be Duke, a school striving to better its reputation. Duke waitlisted 3,382 students in 2011, a number that is about twice the size of the number of places they have for frosh. In other words to empty the waitlist every single person accepted would have to decline, and so would the entire set accepted from the waitlist to replace them. Of course Duke has no illusions this will happen; in 2010 they took a grand total of 60.</p>
<p>It was, however, a good move on Duke’s part to have 3,382 kids out there spreading the word at their HS that they are waitlisted at Duke. If 2 or 3 kids at each HS say to themselves “Sally got waitlisted and my stats are similar, maybe even a bit better; I think I can get in!” then Duke gets a bump in the number of students that applied, making it even more selective and boosting its desirability.</p>
<p>So while being on a few waitlists may give you hope that you’re “almost” in, the truth is likely something quite different.</p>
<p>A couple years after I graduated from law school, I received a letter from the dean saying they had a record number of applicants accept the offer of admission - something like 80-90 over the max class size. They honored those acceptances, added another section to the class, but said they were changing their methods going forward. No longer would they send out 500 acceptances, expecting 250 acceptances, but would now send out the number of acceptances to fill the class, and if anyone said no, then they’d send out more acceptances. </p>
<p>At that school, the waitlist is a real list, not just a way to avoid denying admission. At other schools, very few come off the waitlists. I also think whether you can come off the waitlist depends on your financial situation. If you get accepted but then get no aid, you still can’t go to the school.</p>
<p>If a school were to accept you in 1st go, you may try to negotiate FA. If they accept you after putting you on WL, it has different psychological effect. You will value acceptance more after WL and will willingly pay their asking price. I don’t know they use this logic. I’m just guessing this possibility can work in their favor. </p>
<p>Colleges know from years of statistics gathering what their matriculation rate is. For example, they know that if they accept 100 students, 38 will send in deposits. Since 38 is your X, obviously they don’t accept only 38 students. </p>
<p>In fact, what many schools do in this scenario is accept 90 students and expect 34 to matriculate. They want to go to the waitlist, and leave 4 spots open for that. Come May 1, they look at who has been accepted and use the waitlist to fill in holes. The waitlist is how they get the extra full pay student, the oboist, the kid from North Dakota, for example. Of course, sometimes they accept 90 students and 40 matriculate, and then no one gets in off the wait list. </p>
<p>Your logic about FA doesn’t work at schools that are need-blind. Also, many students don’t accept the wait list, and only a small percentage try to negotiate financial aid. I doubt that’s their grand strategy. </p>