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R0 is just a parameter in a rather basic epidemiological model estimated from actual data on infection in a given population. Itâs affected by human behaviors, living conditions, etc. of that population. Hereâs a Wikipedia page with more details:
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VA data could be a representative sample of US military veterans using VA medical care.
to me, self-reported anecdotes donât even raise to the level of âinfoâ. Anyone with a bias can just make stuff up and post it. Anyone who is ignorant of physiology can associate/attribute aches and pains (or worse) to an event (such as vax) when they are totally unrelated from a scientific standpoint.
Since cc is generally focused on college education, I had hoped that we were better than what is nothing more than a rumor mill. In the old days, we used to have a poster, who I believe was a (former?) applied math prof who used to frequently post chapter and verse on why self-reported anecdotes does not equal data.
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When no data is out there, one looks at anything to look for correlations and ideas. Itâs how all research starts actually.
One goes from there to get data and that data can later confirm, deny, or require more research regarding the original âlook.â
If everyone disregarded personal anecdotes weâd be nowhere medically. One just has to know to take it in context - with a, âhmm, that could be interestingâ thought.
ETA Many of our medical advances have started with âold wives talesâ or âmedicine menâ knowledge and figuring out why so many personal anecdotes were similar, and of course, some were debunked, but not all.
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Anecdotal case reports do get written up in medical journals, but usually with the point of âthis may need more studyâ.
Of course, in the real world, the general public seems to believe anecdotes, regardless of whether they are representative or outlier, much more than data. Journalists writing about data often include anecdotes that align with the data in order to be more convincing to the general public. Also, the general public often fails to distinguish between bad or poorly presented data (which that Twitter thread is an example of both) and good data, to the extent that data is considered.
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this article has some good basic information on breakthrough cases and other stuff -
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Another good article: Why Vaccinated People Are Getting âBreakthroughâ Infections - The New York Times
Looks like 8 weeks between shots is turning out to be ideal for Pfizer:
Definitely wondering if a booster would help in the not so far off future.
Article speaks for itself:
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I just learned that a friends who is a school nurse and was vaccinated months ago has COVID. She was working summer school, so she may have gotten it from a kid (who would be too young to be vaccinated.)
I am starting to think that the only way to get this truly beat is to have the younger kids vaccinated (I know that approval is in the works).
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I got more information from my friend. She and her husband (both fully vaccinated) probably caught COVID at a wedding they went to. They had 3 days of flu like symptoms and then improved each day (with a lingering cough). This is the third story I have heard (yes, I know stricly anecdotal), where multiple vaccinated members of the same family got COVID at the same time.
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I know a family of 5, adults and teen vaccinated, younger children not. They traveled through New Orleans recently. Wore masks indoors everywhere. Stayed in AirBnBs and ate outdoors except for one time⊠In the past week, they dropped like dominos. All have mild but symptomatic cases. Described as like the flu for adults and a bad cold for kids.
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Well, as we all know, it only takes one time, especially now with a significantly more contagious variant. I know itâs anecdotal, but I guess Iâm going to have to re-evaluate my post vaccination behavior.
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Do you think we should start a âbreakthroughâ thread? I know one couple from Chicago who caught it from their unvaccinated adult daughter and one guy from Detroit who is battling it out at home (fell twice in the last 10 days). His wife is caring for him and has no symptoms. She said she thinks he got it at a casino.
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It totally only takes one time. But their real-life experience is so different from the âvaccinated people donât need to worryâ message thatâs out there. And I know breakthroughs are supposedly ârareâ but it doesnât seem to be that rare based on totally anecdotal evidence. They also found that the health department was not interested in recording their cases. I wish we were recording all symptomatic cases, even if mild.
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These families where many got COVID, itâs not like they all got vaccines from the same batch at the same time. But it is interesting to me that nobody in the family is able to beat off the virus. That makes me think it is about the virus (delta varient?), not the vaccine itself.
Normally odds donât work this way. If a person has a 1% chance of getting the virus after a vaccine, then it shouldnât be an entire family all getting it.
You donât see this with other viruses either. An entire family getting the measles even though they are vaccinated?
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One reason you do not see as many measles outbreaks, despite the fact that it, too, is not 100% effective, is that an extremely high percentage of the population has been immunized. In other words, there is less virus going around.
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I do get that. I would have thought that some places in the US (like the northeast) with very high vaccination rates would have a high percentage of immune people and so less virus would be going around. However, there was just an outbreak in Provincetown MA where lots of vaccinated people got it. (They are blaming the tourists for bringing it in, which probably has some truth to it).