Meanwhile….
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04488081
Only critically ill patients are included.
So glad to see every study on treatments.
When You Should Get Your COVID Booster Shot - The Atlantic
A couple of points stood out for me: in some cases better to wait for a third shot so as to avoid interfering with development of B and T cell immunity.
And it might be good to time boosters for maximum effectiveness for, say, a wedding, travel or holiday. Regarding that point, younger people develop antibodies more quickly than older people so timing will vary.
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Some highlights:
PFIZER
Pfizer has Beta- and Delta-specific vaccines in development. The Delta-specific trial was supposed to start in August, but it’s not clear whether it has commenced.
Phase III data show a booster dose of the current vaccine induces significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody titers to the wild-type strain compared to the levels observed after the two-dose primary series. Phase I data showed a similar pattern of booster responses against the wild-type, Beta, Lambda, and Delta variants," the company noted.
MODERNA
According to a press release about its 2021 R&D Day, Moderna has four vaccine candidates in development against variants: one against Beta, one against Delta, a multivalent vaccine targeting Beta and the wild-type strain, and a multivalent vaccine against Beta and Delta.
The company also stated that it believes data support a booster dose (50 mcg, or half the original dose), and submitted those data to FDA at the beginning of September.
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Had Covid early 2021, AND Moderna double shot a few months later. I always teased that’s now my super-power. Based on recent studies noted above, that might not be too far from the truth 
. I’m guessing I will be eligible for a booster by November (due to age, and Moderna vs. Pfizer). But, it seems like it might be smart to get tested for anti-body levels first, just to see if necessary,. If still high, leave the extra shots for those with less protection, or previously without the vaccine. Is that logic valid? Where does one go to have antibody levels tested?
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It depends on whether there is much demand from those with “less protection.” Right now, most communities have an abundance of vaccines available, and I predict that won’t change once CDC issues its next guidelines for third doses.
Just had a call from our HS nurse reminding us that our son needs to have his Meningitis booster, or he will not be able to attend school in person. Amazing that this goes on all the time around our nation, yet only the Covid vaccine has widespread drama attached to it. It’s illogical, and stupid.
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I found this data from the UK to be reassuring about the risks of long COVID:
“The ONS survey, published last week, found that 5 per cent of people who had tested positive for Covid reported at least one symptom 12 to 16 weeks after their infection. However, it also found that 3.4 per cent of people who had not been diagnosed with Covid also reported the same symptoms.
It estimated that two million people have self-reported long Covid, with the most common symptoms being fatigue, muscle ache, headache and brain fog. Fever, nausea, abdominal pain, sore throat and loss of taste and smell, shortness of breath and cough are also recognised symptoms. The ONS said that such conditions were experienced regularly within the general population.”
From https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-covid-is-overblown-and-often-something-else-says-oxford-professor-x62ghkt3c (paywalled), the ONS report itself is here: Technical article: Updated estimates of the prevalence of post-acute symptoms among people with coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK - Office for National Statistics
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I don’t find that reassuring at all. Today I read another article about the autoantibodies most likely responsible for Long Covid.
I am sure the large number of people with these symptoms post-COVID don’t find it reassuring either. I am hoping Long Covid doesn’t join chronic fatigue, fibromyalgia and Lyme Disease as very real ailments that are dismissed and ignored.
Is the ONS going to say it’s “psychological” and “all in their head”?
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Well, I agree this is more reassuring than many earlier articles. I guess I read it as 5% experience unpleasant symptoms after 3 or 4 months, but of that, there are two groups….1.6 percentage points of the people probably have those symptoms attributable to covid, and 3.4 percentage points of the people may experience those things (fatigue, headaches, etc), but they may not really be attributable to covid, just coincidental. It is natural for those people to blame covid, but in the majority of the cases, covid isn’t really to blame. That doesn’t mean it’s in their head, just that it is something that happens to people for reasons other than covid. So to me, that means long covid is real, and is experienced by approximately 1.6% of people who test positive, which totally stinks, but is much better than the estimated percents I had been hearing earlier. And what reassures me further is that not all cases of long covid are equally bad. Some sound completely debilitating, and others sound like minor annoyances, or things that dissipate in less than 6 months, so are temporary. So the percent of covid patients who suffer debilitating, possibly permanent, long covid is very well below 1.6%. So for those people it is understandably HORRIBLE, but it doesn’t seem to me that I personally ought to live in profound fear of that happening; the odds are very much against it. But I understand that anyone who has been touched by long covid will have more fear of it. I have been worried about it despite the fact that by now I think I know of well over 100 people who have had covid and not a single one seems to have long covid, and I think I am learning to put it in more perspective relative to other risks I am exposed to.
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Well the point is that the number of people with long term symptoms does not appear to be anything like as “large” as previously suspected. This blog post by the author of the ONS report notes that:
“One of the more striking findings from the latest release is the revision to the 12-week prevalence estimate using this approach, from 14% back in April to 3% now. This fall in the prevalence estimate is largely because we know more about participants’ long-term symptoms today than we did then.”
And just to add that I’m in no way suggesting long Covid doesn’t exist, my brother has long lasting, likely permanent, nerve damage from Covid induced transverse myelitis (the same thing seen as a rare AZ vaccine side effect). But I am reassured that these effects seem to be rare.
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That ONS study also notes that the rate of symptoms is significantly higher 5 weeks after, declining at 12 and 16 weeks after. Perhaps “medium COVID”?
Of course, “long COVID” does not seem to be well defined – how long after recovery do symptoms have to last to be “long COVID”?
Long Covid Has Created Unexpected Burden on Health System: NIH - Bloomberg
This article cites a figure of 30% COVID patients having “long COVID,” but the figures, I believe, come from a UK February study. ( I cannot return to double check due to reading too many Bloomberg articles in a month!)
I have gotten used to reading contradictory articles every day and am a lot more skeptical than I used to be, probably healthy.
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Try opening link in “InPrivate window” on Microsoft Edge, or try opening link in “incognito window” on Google Chrome. That prevents access to cookies used to count articles accessed, and enable you to read as many articles as you want on most websites that do not require signing in to read free articles.
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J&J study of vaccine effectiveness:
Standard one dose:
- 79% VE versus infection
- 81% VE versus hospitalization
- 78% VE versus infection in June/July in high-Delta states
- 85% VE versus hospitalization in June/July in high-Delta states
- VE stable from 14 to 152 days after dose
With second dose 56 days after first dose:
- 75% VE against symptomatic globally
- 94% VE against symptomatic in the US
- 100% VE against severe/critical
Other second dose notes:
- Antibodies increased 4-6 times with second dose two months after first dose.
- Antibodies increased 9-12 times with second dose six months after first dose.
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It looks interesting that vaccine effectiveness was almost identical with delta vs. earlier version. And that it seems very unclear whether 2nd/booster is better given 2 vs. 6 months after 1st shot. I obviously didn’t read the whole article, sorry—there’s probably an explanation.
Note that in J&J’s original trials, VE was not all that different in South Africa, where Beta was the common variant, versus the US and Brazil. Beta is generally considered the furthest from the vaccine target.
However, it is worth noting that Delta is much more likely to infect both unvaccinated and vaccinated people than Alpha and previous variants, possibly due to higher virus volumes. So even if VE of whatever vaccine you got is the same, the absolute risk level is higher than with Alpha and previous variants.
Actually, I had a typo in the previous post (now corrected). A second dose at 6 months increased antibodies 9-12 times, not 0-12 times.
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Hooray! Merck’s antiviral pill was very effective in trial, shutting trial down early. I haven’t read all the details yet, but this is big news. I believe that not only is it convenient (pill form), but you have up to 5 days after testing positive to start taking it, so there’s a decent-sized window of time for this to work on individuals.
One question I have is how this will play into vaccine hesitation? I believe it cuts risk of hospitalization/death by over 50%. Will vaccine hesitant people who might have gotten the vaccine now think, hey I don’t need to, if I catch covid, I’ll take the pill? This is all going to be very interesting!
ETA: oops, the study had enrollees take the medication up to 5 days after the onset of symptoms (I had said 5 days after testing positive). So that really does give people a chance to go get it. The study was focused on people at risk of developing severe disease, so what they tested so far wasn’t for casual use for say, a healthy college student. But cutting 50% of hospitalizations from the population who is most at risk of hospitalization is still a big deal! (I’m making this edit AFTER the post below)
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