But Omicron probably wasn’t at that party, right?
I live in a very small town and there are 78 cases since Thanksgiving. higher than before. But high vaccination rate in my town. Only 5 hospitalizations.
Small city nearby has 150 since TG. I believe this is all Delta.
Yes, the outbreak in Norway from the Christmas party is the Omicron variant.
Forgot it was Norway! Glad it is mild so far. If young age is a factor in most Omicron cases so far, I wonder when we will know how older folks are reacting.
From what I have read, many scientists/epidemiogists are saying it will be at least a month before we know more…and that will be by way of analysis from South Africa and/or Israel and/or EU/UK…not the US as we just aren’t sequencing enough samples or tracking non-hospitalized patients which is not so helpful really.
Of course, staying outdoors is more effective than most masks as they are typically worn.
But that is likely why seasonal variation of COVID-19 often appears to track times when the local weather tends to be more unpleasant for outdoor activity.
I don’t know where we’d be if we didn’t have the superb Pfizer - Israel partnership, which has provided excellent data regarding the pandemic and vaccines.
Some information from Tshwane District (includes Pretoria), Gauteng Province, South Africa, about the Omicron variant:
Included graph shows cases rising rapidly, but deaths are not rising, unlike in previous waves of COVID-19:
However, more of South Africa’s population has some immune response from either previous infection or vaccination than during previous waves of COVID-19.
As of last night, our hospital system has multiple patients testing positive for the omicron variant
After recently returning from the UK, where most people are testing very frequently, the US government’s attitude to home testing is just nuts:
Question: I keep reading about how Omicron could “dethrone” or “overthrow” Delta. How does that happen? If they are different, can you have both? If one strain “takes over” how does the other strain die out?
One starts spreading so rapidly that that is the variant that starts spreading. The other variants “die out” because they are not as transmissible.
If someone walks into a room of 100 people and has a highly transmissible variant, maybe 50 people get it and then start spreading it and the number explodes. People get sick, go to the hospital, stay home, socially distance. Another person could have a less transmissible variant, they now walk into a room, but because of the above, maybe there are now only 20 people in there, and one person gets infected. The numbers are much higher for the more transmissible variant. When Delta came, it was so much more transmissible, the other variants faded. Didn’t go away completely, but 95-99% of cases were Delta. As of last night, our hospital has 9 positive omicron cases. That’s quite a bit in one day. Perhaps it is more transmissible that Delta, we will have to see. It could overtake Delta just like what Delta did to the other variants. But if disease severity is more like the common cold, that would be a relief. We will know in about a week.
Adding that yes, people can be infected with more than one covid variant at the same time, there are documented cases of this.
So why the talk of Omicron taking over? We also read that Delta “took over.” I am curious about how that happens. I guess if a strain is more transmissable, more people get it, but are then immune to the previous strains. But that may not happen with Omicron.
I assume because of its projected R0 and the infection rates we are seeing in South Africa and the UK. As texastiger2 says, we should know more soon.
I don’t think this has been true with covid, a not insignificant proportion of infections have been re-infections. Of course in the US we aren’t testing enough, or sequencing enough samples, so don’t know a lot of detail at the patient/strain level.
It takes over because it is spreading in the community more efficiently than the other variants. The other variants are still there, but are unable to spread because of what was mentioned above. You can get more than one strain at a time, just like you can get flu and covid at the same time. You can get flu A and flu B at the same time. I read that natural immunity (from infection from a previous strain) does not protect against omicron, and the vaccine has reduced capability, but with a booster, tremendously increasing your antibody numbers, you should still be protected from severe disease, which is the important thing. All this with the caveat that we still are not sure, since this is evolving, but this is what scientists are thinking right now.
I feel as if my question is not being understood. Here is an example of an article:
Medical expert says it’s a ‘possibility’ that Omicron beats out Delta, helps lower deaths (msn.com)
If Delta is still very transmissable, and you can get both at once, how would Omicron “beat it out”? I would think Delta would continue at the same rate.
If you have, lets say, Delta, causing more serious disease and death but less transmissible and I have omicron, more transmissible but behaves like the common cold, and we go to an indoor party of 100 people, everyone masked and socially distanced, I might infect 40, you might infect 10. Then those people go to gatherings, my variant is spreading but causing mild illness, some people are staying home. The people you infected are maybe going to the hospital, some unfortunately dying. My people are still going out. Numbers of my variant are going up, people are seeing more disease in the community (mostly my variant), taking more action to mask, avoid large gatherings, etc. This also slows the spread of your variant, but because it is less transmissible but more virulent, you have less people infected and a larger percentage of your variant are dead, so your overall number is much lower. My variant has “beaten out” if you will your variant. Yours is still there, but at much lower numbers. Did that answer it? Sorry if I don’t understand.
Yes that approaches the question in the complex way that I think was needed!
And I hope you don’t get Delta! 