Our data. Delta wave over for us. Omicron starting now.
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Which is why the email went out last night to all employees asking everyone to take extra precautions, especially with the holidays coming up. Reminder to get boosted, wear masks, socially distance, PCR testing, gather outdoors, etc.
Testing of employees is a combination of active surveillance and symptomatic.
And we are a large system, so right now thatās a fraction of employees so weāre ok but could become a problem if people arenāt aware how contagious this variant is and therefore the urgent need to take extra precautions, especially with the holiday gatherings.
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Yes, according to the person who runs the lab, there are only 3 other places in the US that do a good volume.
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A Walmart relatively close to us has closed due to Covid. You know it has to be bad if theyāre closing during the Christmas shopping season. Some customers they interviewed on the news were pretty upset. I gather they wanted them to stay open and keep spreading it.
So the big question, to me, is whether Omicron confers immunity to Delta and other strains. I have read that you can get both at the same time, so apparently not. Therefore, unless Delta has already burned through an area, it is not true that Omicon with āovertakeā or ādethroneā Delta, right? Or is this unknown?
It is possible of course that Omicron will 'take over" vaccinated folks who are relatively immune to Delta but not to Omicron.
My kid is flying 12/19 and going back across the country 12/30. I was going to go back with her and then return here on 1/17. I was finally boosted. We are considering cancelling or at least my part of the trip.
In this case, we are less afraid of catching COVID and more afraid of the effect of the surge on a performance event that has already been delayed two years and is required for PhD completion.
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Thereās no question weāll have more Omicron infections than Delta infections very shortly. The question is whether or not the Delta variant will be completely crowded out by Omicron. If it can re-infect people who has or just had Omicron infection, it will remain a serious threat.
Yup. But boosters work relatively well with Delta, and I am skeptical they work with Omicron, so still hoping reports of mildness hold up.
Agree, and we just donāt know enough yet to be certain, but the fact that MAb donāt work against omicron says thereās enough genetic variance that antibodies against one will provide little immunity against the other. The way I think about it is comparing it with the flu. If you get the shot and are exposed to a strain that is not covered but has somewhat similar antigenicity, who will have a milder course. No antigenic similarity, no coverage. Plenty of people get flu A or B in the fall and then get the other in the winter/spring. No antigenic similarity and 2 separate infections.
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Yes, boosters raise the amount of antibody level up so high that it will hopefully overwhelm omicron by its sheer volume though perhaps not perfectly matched antigen-wise.
First, no one knows this yet, certainly not me, but a few observations.
Simultaneous infection does not mean one does not confer immunity to the other. It takes time after exposure to either wild disease or vaccine to build defenses. Simultaneous infection has already been reported with previous strains. It was primarily in immunocompromised long term actively infected patients, but well before clinical sequencing was so widespread.
From a pure biological standpoint, there would have to be formidable changes to all of the antigenic proteins for someone to get omicron and then get delta and vice versa, unless enough time had passed that circulating antibodies had warned. An across the board escape like that in such a short period of time would be highly unlikely. Breakthrough after vaccination is a different story as they target a single antigen.
All speculation on my part to be sure.
It remains to be seen how long it takes for antibodies to decrease to a level where they donāt affect Omicron. I am in a study and my antibodies skyrocketed two weeks after the booster and remained high after one month. Testing again at 3 months and 6 months.
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It would help if boosters that targeted the variant of the season were available, like they do with flu vaccine.
Regarding immunity from natural infection, Delta infection probably gives some against Omicron and vice versa, but it may only be to the point of reducing severity and duration, rather than always preventing infection. There is some concern that the mildness of Omicron in Gauteng, RSA is due to high seropositive rates suggesting that 70% of the population there has been previously infected.
From what I read they mismatched this year flu vaccine which doesnāt happens very often. The last time that happened in 2014. So itās ineffective against predominant strain this year.
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South Africa had Betaā¦I may have read that conferred more immunity to Omicron but not sure. Also population skews young. UK might be better model to watch.
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Whether natural or vaccine immunity the reality is they both can reduce severity and duration. There is no āalways preventing infectionā from either route though.
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Prior infection maybe 19% protection from reinfection. Vaccines with a boost 55%-80% protection from infection.
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UW/Hutch report that Omicron will be prevalent strain here in 1-2 days.
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Iām interested in the rapid spread in Washington. Here in Oregon we arenāt seeing a rise in cases or test positive rates yet. Weāve had a few cases identified but Iām not sure we are sequencing enough to know whatās going on.
However, only 0-20% protection from two doses without booster (assuming Pfizer or AstraZeneca, since those numbers come from the UK). Still, 0-20% or 19% may also come with some reduction in severity if infected; the page also mentions the RSAās health minister saying that lower severity may be the result of prior infection and vaccination among much of the population.
UW/Hutch do a lot of sequencing and modeling, so they tend to find what they are actively looking for. Iām sure Omicron becoming the dominant strain is not just a WA phenomenon at this point. 