At this point we have to rely on the manufacturers rather than the FDA to bring forth a safe and effective product. And of course, long-term safety is likely to be unknown, assuming a vaccine makes it to market in the next 6-12 months. I hope the manufacturers are up to the task.
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We could have a new president by then who re-instills confidence in the FDA.
According to Michael Mina, the technology for these quick strip tests exists right now. The problem, he said, was that the FDA wouldnât approve them, because theyâre not accurate enough to detect infection, although (according to Michael Mina) they are can detect infectiousness.
But now the FDA says that companies donât have to get FDA approval for covid tests. So maybe that clears the way?
@âCardinal Fangâ â tks for that info.
It is important that we understand what such a test is actually telling us and use the results accordingly. Seems to me places likes schools and workplaces would seem good environments for universal daily (or however frequently deemed necessary) usage to keep communities healthy.
Fingers crossedâŠ
Derek Lowe of In The Pipeline ( a blog at science mag) has a good summary of this weekendâs FDA presser and convalescent plasma EUA. Itâs called âConvalescent Plasma: The Science and the Politicsâ.
Yes, doing these instant tests would greatly contribute to public health by letting contagious people know that they should not go to work, class, etc. where they may infect other people.
The tests that we have now where it takes a day or few (or longer) to get the results wonât stop an asymptomatically contagious person from going to work, class, etc. that day, because the result will not be known until after.
The Chinese have been vaccinating some doctors and border agents since July:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/asia/china-vaccine-doctors-workers-intl/index.html
Came up in a local conversation - do we know that the Spanish flu was an influenza virus or was it just assumed it was one. Was the science around at the time to know or did they go off symptoms? If assumed, could it perhaps have been a coronavirus instead - esp with it dying out after 15 months the way many coronaviruses can mutate themselves out (as I read long ago)?
It was checked later that the 1918 flu was actually a flu based on lung tissue from those who died of it.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
per former FDA Commish, Robert Califf:
yes I thought it was H1N1. I knew this because I had it two years ago.
FDA Chief Hahn is tweeting tonite about the convalescent plasma EUA and last nightâs announcement.
Says he should have said things better re: benefits of convalescent plasmaâŠ
Response from Eric Topol, esteemed physician leader:
Yep, that about sums it up.
More on that 35% figure:
F.D.A. âGrossly Misrepresentedâ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/health/fda-blood-plasma.html
Pretty understandable explanation of how the immune system works generally, and with COVID https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20200824&silverid-ref=NjUyOTQwNTEzNzI2S0
We are possibly on a path that could harm perceptions of vaccines (not limited to covid ones) for a very long time, as US is evidently considering giving EUA to AZ/Oxfordâs vaccine based on 10,000 person UK trial. Here are the first few paragraphs of one article:
Itâs incredible to me that making a vaccine available so quickly is even a possibility, can people imagine what would happen if a vaccine launched that ended up not being safe and/or effective?
Itâs quite possible that people and business and markets respond (favorably) to a big announcement (available vaccine) before itâs even ready to distribute (& before multitudes are ready to accept the jab).
Large sectors of the economy are waiting for some indication of when, in 2021 (?), business will resume.
Iâm not sure why you tagged me on your post, it doesnât seem connected to my previous post, which focused on potentially approving a vaccine based on limited data from 10K trial participants.
We have already seen markets respond favorably to a number of companies developing covid diagnostics, treatments, or vaccines.
Yes, we all want life to get back to normal, but it will take a long time for a vaccine (should we even get one) to get things back to normal. IMO a rapid test strip with instant results would go much farther to allowing us to get back to normal.
Ultimately, it will probably be some combo of testing, treatments and maybe vaccines that allow us to get to something more normal.
Markets are at an all time high (even pre Covid) they are already counting on a vaccine next year and that the federal government has the back of every large corporation. If the government gets blanket legal protections to companies for Covid, they will shoot up some more. If everything gets delayed - then there is a risk of a downturn.
Apologies â quick sloppy quoting and posting on my part.
An interesting and thorough meta analysis (of 75 studies) assessing overall covid risk/outcomes in obese individuals. In the US obesity is defined as BMI 30 or greater, not sure that is consistent worldwide.
US prevalence of obesity is around 42%, so obviously this is concerning informationâŠnot only the higher risk and worse outcomes, but also the thinking that therapeutics and vaccines might be less effective in those with BMI 30 or greater.