<p>I don’t think we should overblow the difficulty of qualifying for the USAMO.</p>
<p>There is no calculus required and many of the problems are more akin to mental puzzles than actual mathematics. AIME scores vastly improve with training and experience. </p>
<p>I like to take the AIME in timed conditions every year and have scored an average of around ten for the past ten years and I graduated over 30 year ago. </p>
<p>At least a dozen 8th graders or younger qualify every year for the USAMO (since the tightening of eligibility) and even 4th graders like Michael Ma have qualified.</p>
<p>I would guess than if you were an USAMO winner (top 12) your chances of admission would be near 100% just as it would for a Top 10 Intel STS winner.</p>
<p>A USAMO Honorable Mention (top 24) would probably have a greater than 80% chance just like an STS Finalist (top 30).</p>
<p>A USAMO Qualifier (top 270) would be similar to an Intel Semifinalist (top 300). Probably around 50/50 chance. is that too low? I don’t think so. If the AIME were given in China thousands of students would probably qualify for the USAMO.</p>